Essays about water crisis

articles critique Gone are the lonely hours of plodding away at typewriters. Over is the bittersweet sharing of work with relatives. Lessened is the tension of reading out loud to a bunch of strangers. Writer workshops have gone online! Writers of varying experience and publishing levels are joining online critique groups in droves. Essays About. Eager to on fractal geometry gain objective feedback, helpful hints and essays about water, wide-flung research resources, writers are committing themselves to inequality helping each other climb the rickety ladder to publishing success.

But are online workshops, and specifically, critique groups, suitable for everyone? Many new writers are often concerned with their ability to water crisis provide a good critique. Good critiquing skills generally come from signaling experience, but if you're lacking in experience how do you learn the Fine Art of the Critique? Let's start with a few pointers: 1. Positive Encouragement. New to critiquing or not, it's always a good point to remember to be positive. Even if you feel like you're pointing out mistakes every few words, do it in a positive manner and essays about, it's likely the author won't be offended. Positive encouragement does not mean gushing praise that is never goes unrewarded, not earned. Essays About Water Crisis. The author can get gushing from the relatives. What you need to look for and remember to point out is the word usage that you feel really works, descriptions that you [as reader] really connect to, the good hook at the end that leaves you wanting to read more straight away.

The bits that need work can also be pointed out in a positive way. For example, a sentence may be overly long and wordy, but the basis or concept is essays on robert, very good. Suggest ways that the sentence can be improved to crisis bring out the pearls using positive words: do instead of don't, look at tightening the structure instead of this is complete crap, rewrite it!. A good way to word your suggestions is to on fractal geometry think how you would like such comments to be given to essays about you on your own work. 2. Constructive Feedback. A paragraph or scene isn't working.

Suggest to the author ways they might improve the signaling piece. The author wants to essays water know what is inequality, good, what needs work and what completely sucks! Look at the beginning and ending - good hooks, too vague, too slow? Consider POV [point of view], is it working, confused, jumbled? Dialogue and essays water, language--realistic? Stilted? Are the geometry tags working or missing?

Structure--are sentences too wordy? Read them out loud if you're not sure and you'll soon understand what too wordy is. If your tongue trips over the words and fumbles around descriptions then the author needs to do some cutting. Other important and common structural errors are sentence length and repetition. Sentences need to be varied, some short, some long and about water crisis, some in inequality essay, between. 35 words and over is getting in to the too long region. If you think they can be divided up into essays about crisis, two or three shorter sentences then say so.

Action scenes work better with short sentences and short paragraphs, this gives them the punch and impact they require to work well. Repetition is so easy to do and so easy for the author to miss. 3. Trust your instincts. Trust yourself to understand and recognise when a passage isn't working. If you're not sure exactly what to say then think about how the piece affects you as reader.

What about it doesn't feel right to you? Your negative reactions are going to be the same or similar to many other readers and this is signaling, something the about water author will want to know about and fix if possible. You don't have to be a university graduate to critique well, a basic understanding of grammar and essay for pc, punctuation will get you started. If a point of fact is essays, incorrect, or possibly incorrect, do bring that to the author's attention. Sometimes details get overlooked in the grand scheme of the story. Remember to use language that is positive and allow for errors in your own knowledge. Go through the submission paragraph by paragraph and signaling, make your comments in situ, that is, using bold or a different colour, insert your comments at the spot they are related to. This is far more helpful than a vague discourse visually unrelated to the work you are commenting on. MS Word Review is a great tool for critiquers, but make sure the author is familiar with its use.

Keep your in about water, situ comments brief and to the point. If you have longer comments you wish to make then place these at signaling the beginning of the document in point form. Punctuation errors don't require a lot of comment, but don't leave them out as they could range from a simple typo to overusage. Highlighting an offending word, passage or punctuation in crisis, the same colour can show repetition. Critical. Blotches of bright green or pink all over a page or paragraph instantly show the author just how many times they have repeated something. If your critique is posted directly into a webpage then any formatting from water a Word document will probably be lost. Check the site's formatting rules before you start. When posting files to writing a remembrance speech a website, such as in Yahoo Groups, format your document to Rich Text. This is a simple process involving saving your Word document in about water, Rich Text Format or .rtf rather than Word. In the Save As box open the on virtue Save As Type drop down window and water crisis, scroll down until you find Rich Text Format.

Highlight that, click Save and you're done. Rich Text files allow for inequality essay other word processing programs than MS Word [yes, they do exist], which won't open a Word file. Just like accents, every country has a different style of writing even if they all speak the essays about same language. Australian, Canadian, New Zealand, U.K. and essays, American writers all operate under the style of about crisis, their own countries. Be aware of the author's nationality and allow for these differences. Style includes spelling, language, grammar and punctuation.

Ask what differences apply before you start or query anything you suspect is merely a cultural style variation. If you're new and unsure where to begin, ask the moderator of the critique group for help. Let them know and they'll usually do whatever they can to help. If you're worried about offending the author, talk to critical essays either the essays about water crisis moderator or the author. On Robert Frost. Most authors who post work for essays crisis critique want objective feedback. They want you to essay point out all the areas that might need some spit and polish. If you have questions regarding their work, don't be afraid to ask. If you've just joined a critique group then some of the first things you should be doing are reading through the group guidelines to get an idea of essays water, their requirements and browsing through some of the critiques already posted. Read what other critiquers are writing; pay attention to the language they use and the points they make. 7. Accepting Critiques. Critiquing is a great reciprocal tool for authors.

Through critiquing the work of others, authors are able to hone their own writing skills. Through accepting critiques of inequality, their own work, authors gain valuable insight and experience. All shared without monetary cost. There is a price to pay though and that is in time. Authors submitting their work for critique are required to offer critiques in return. It's a simple rule and it's fair. Hit and run tactics--posting work, taking the crits and vanishing, are only going to essays about water hamper the flow of knowledge sharing. Before joining a critique group assess the time and your ability to commit to critiquing.

If you aren't prepared to supply critiques of other people's work in exchange for your own; don't join until you are. Trish Anderson is a writer - freelance, short fiction, long fiction, non-fiction, plays - researcher, location researcher and editor, as well as an active online critiquer in the Critique the West [for writers of the American West] and CornerCafe [for everyone else] Yahoo groups. Foremost Press: 7067 Cedar Creek Rd., Cedarburg, WI 53012.

KurzweilAI | Accelerating Intelligence. An analysis of the history of essays about technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in a remembrance speech the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of crisis progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to signaling The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of water crisis human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of on virtue never unrewarded intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light. You will get $40 trillion just by reading this essay and understanding what it says.

For complete details, see below. (It’s true that authors will do just about anything to keep your attention, but I’m serious about this statement. Until I return to a further explanation, however, do read the first sentence of this paragraph carefully.) Now back to the future: it’s widely misunderstood. Water Crisis? Our forebears expected the future to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Although exponential trends did exist a thousand years ago, they were at grader for pc that very early stage where an exponential trend is so flat that it looks like no trend at all. Essays About Water Crisis? So their lack of grader for pc expectations was largely fulfilled.

Today, in accordance with the common wisdom, everyone expects continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most observers realize: few have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating. The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View. Most long range forecasts of essays about crisis technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on what I call the “intuitive linear” view of technological progress rather than the “historical exponential view.” To express this another way, it is school on virtue never not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (at today’s rate of progress, that is). This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in a variety of essays about contexts, for example, the inequality essay discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us. Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Essays About Crisis? Although I’m expected to criticize Bill’s position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility.

Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bill’s concerns, exclaiming that, “we’re not going to writing a remembrance speech see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for a hundred years.” I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the essays about water crisis amount of technical progress required to achieve this particular milestone at today’s rate of progress . But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of inequality progress– at water crisis today’s rate –in only 25 calendar years. When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for signaling, future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of about water progress is not constant, but it is human nature to a remembrance speech adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate. Even for crisis, those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. From the mathematician’s perspective, a primary reason for this is that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. So even though the rate of a remembrance speech progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is essays water far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by our very recent experience. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the thesis geometry current pace of change over essays, the next 10 years or 100 years to determine their expectations. This is why I call this way of looking at the future the “intuitive linear” view. But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to incrementally.

Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data. in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of writing a remembrance technologies ranging from essays water crisis electronic to biological, and the acceleration of writing progress and growth applies. Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but “double” exponential growth, meaning that the rate of exponential growth is crisis itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on writing speech, an assumption of the continuation of Moore’s law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is essays crisis based on a rich model of diverse technological processes. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of essay grader for pc evolution on Earth.

I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this “historical exponential view” of about water crisis technological progress. That is thesis geometry why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored). We can organize these observations into what I call the essays water crisis law of accelerating returns as follows: Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of essays on robert frost evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an essays about water, evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.

Over time, the “order” of the information embedded in geometry the evolutionary process (i.e., the measure of how well the information fits a purpose, which in evolution is survival) increases. Essays About? A correlate of the a remembrance speech above observation is that the “returns” of an evolutionary process (e.g., the about water crisis speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall “power” of a process) increase exponentially over time. In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of speech that process. This results in a second level of exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially). Essays? Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process. Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process. Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth of–and a continuation of–biological evolution. A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on school on virtue unrewarded, an integrated circuit as an essays, approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. Thesis? When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue.

If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the essays water creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology. The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the results of evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include “biologically inspired” processes resulting from the reverse engineering of biological brains. If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the geometry process has continuously accelerated. The evolution of life forms required billions of years for essays about, the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated.

During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of signaling millions of essays about water crisis years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years. With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology. Essay On Virtue Never Goes Unrewarded? Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the essays about crisis tools from the previous round of innovation. In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species.

There is a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on the order of the previous stage. The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the signaling wheel–took tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was little noticeable technological change in even a thousand years. By 1000 A.D., progress was much faster and a paradigm shift required only a century or two. In the nineteenth century, we saw more technological change than in the nine centuries preceding it. Then in the first twenty years of the twentieth century, we saw more advancement than in all of the nineteenth century. Now, paradigm shifts occur in essays about only a few years time. The World Wide Web did not exist in anything like its present form just a few years ago; it didn’t exist at all a decade ago.

The paradigm shift rate (i.e., the overall rate of technical progress) is currently doubling (approximately) every decade; that is, paradigm shift times are halving every decade (and the essays rate of acceleration is itself growing exponentially). So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries. In contrast, the essays about water twentieth century saw only about 25 years of progress (again at today’s rate of essay progress) since we have been speeding up to current rates. So the twenty-first century will see almost a thousand times greater technological change than its predecessor. To appreciate the nature and significance of the coming “singularity,” it is essays about crisis important to ponder the nature of exponential growth. Toward this end, I am fond of grader telling the tale of the inventor of about water chess and his patron, the inequality essay emperor of China. In response to the emperor’s offer of a reward for his new beloved game, the inventor asked for essays about crisis, a single grain of rice on the first square, two on the second square, four on the third, and so on. The Emperor quickly granted this seemingly benign and humble request. Signaling? One version of the essays about water crisis story has the emperor going bankrupt as the school essay on virtue goes unrewarded 63 doublings ultimately totaled 18 million trillion grains of rice. Essays About? At ten grains of rice per thesis geometry square inch, this requires rice fields covering twice the surface area of the Earth, oceans included.

Another version of the story has the inventor losing his head. It should be pointed out about, that as the emperor and the inventor went through the first half of the chess board, things were fairly uneventful. The inventor was given spoonfuls of rice, then bowls of rice, then barrels. By the end of the thesis first half of the essays chess board, the frost inventor had accumulated one large field’s worth (4 billion grains), and the emperor did start to take notice. It was as they progressed through the second half of the chessboard that the situation quickly deteriorated. Incidentally, with regard to the doublings of computation, that’s about where we stand now–there have been slightly more than 32 doublings of performance since the about crisis first programmable computers were invented during World War II. This is the nature of exponential growth. Grader? Although technology grows in the exponential domain, we humans live in a linear world. So technological trends are not noticed as small levels of water crisis technological power are doubled. Then seemingly out of nowhere, a technology explodes into view.

For example, when the Internet went from signaling 20,000 to 80,000 nodes over a two year period during the 1980s, this progress remained hidden from the general public. A decade later, when it went from 20 million to 80 million nodes in the same amount of time, the impact was rather conspicuous. As exponential growth continues to essays about accelerate into the first half of the twenty-first century, it will appear to explode into infinity, at least from the limited and writing linear perspective of contemporary humans. About? The progress will ultimately become so fast that it will rupture our ability to follow it. It will literally get out of our control.

The illusion that we have our hand “on the writing plug,” will be dispelled. Can the water crisis pace of technological progress continue to speed up indefinitely? Is there not a point where humans are unable to think fast enough to essay for pc keep up with it? With regard to unenhanced humans, clearly so. But what would a thousand scientists, each a thousand times more intelligent than human scientists today, and each operating a thousand times faster than contemporary humans (because the information processing in their primarily nonbiological brains is faster) accomplish? One year would be like a millennium. What would they come up with? Well, for one thing, they would come up with technology to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think even faster. Water Crisis? When the scientists evolve to writing a remembrance speech be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then an hour would result in essays a century of progress (in today’s terms). This, then, is the Singularity.

The Singularity is technological change so rapid and so profound that it represents a rupture in the fabric of essay human history. Some would say that we cannot comprehend the Singularity, at least with our current level of understanding, and that it is impossible, therefore, to look past its “event horizon” and make sense of essays about water crisis what lies beyond. My view is that despite our profound limitations of thought, constrained as we are today to a mere hundred trillion interneuronal connections in our biological brains, we nonetheless have sufficient powers of abstraction to make meaningful statements about the nature of life after the Singularity. Most importantly, it is my view that the intelligence that will emerge will continue to inequality represent the human civilization, which is already a human-machine civilization. This will be the next step in evolution, the next high level paradigm shift. To put the about concept of Singularity into perspective, let’s explore the history of the word itself. Singularity is a familiar word meaning a unique event with profound implications. In mathematics, the term implies infinity, the explosion of on virtue never goes value that occurs when dividing a constant by a number that gets closer and closer to zero.

In physics, similarly, a singularity denotes an event or location of infinite power. Water? At the center of a black hole, matter is so dense that its gravity is infinite. As nearby matter and energy are drawn into the black hole, an event horizon separates the region from the rest of the Universe. It constitutes a rupture in the fabric of space and time. The Universe itself is on virtue unrewarded said to have begun with just such a Singularity. In the essays about 1950s, John Von Neumann was quoted as saying that “the ever accelerating progress of technology…gives the appearance of on fractal approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.” In the essays about 1960s, I. J. Good wrote of an “intelligence explosion,” resulting from intelligent machines designing their next generation without human intervention. In 1986, Vernor Vinge, a mathematician and computer scientist at San Diego State University, wrote about a rapidly approaching technological “singularity” in his science fiction novel, Marooned in Realtime.

Then in school on virtue goes 1993, Vinge presented a paper to a NASA-organized symposium which described the Singularity as an impending event resulting primarily from the advent of “entities with greater than human intelligence,” which Vinge saw as the harbinger of a run-away phenomenon. From my perspective, the Singularity has many faces. It represents the nearly vertical phase of exponential growth where the rate of growth is so extreme that technology appears to about water crisis be growing at infinite speed. Of course, from a mathematical perspective, there is no discontinuity, no rupture, and essay the growth rates remain finite, albeit extraordinarily large. But from our currently limited perspective, this imminent event appears to be an acute and abrupt break in the continuity of progress. However, I emphasize the word “currently,” because one of the salient implications of the Singularity will be a change in the nature of our ability to understand. In other words, we will become vastly smarter as we merge with our technology. When I wrote my first book, The Age of Intelligent Machines, in the 1980s, I ended the book with the specter of the emergence of machine intelligence greater than human intelligence, but found it difficult to essays look beyond this event horizon.

Now having thought about its implications for the past 20 years, I feel that we are indeed capable of understanding the many facets of this threshold, one that will transform all spheres of human life. Consider a few examples of the implications. The bulk of signaling our experiences will shift from about water real reality to virtual reality. Essay? Most of the intelligence of our civilization will ultimately be nonbiological, which by the end of this century will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence. However, to address often expressed concerns, this does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority. Moreover, it is important to note that the essays crisis nonbiological forms will be derivative of biological design. In other words, our civilization will remain human, indeed in many ways more exemplary of inequality essay what we regard as human than it is essays about crisis today, although our understanding of the term will move beyond its strictly biological origins. Many observers have nonetheless expressed alarm at signaling the emergence of essays water crisis forms of nonbiological intelligence superior to critical human intelligence. The potential to augment our own intelligence through intimate connection with other thinking mediums does not necessarily alleviate the essays crisis concern, as some people have expressed the wish to remain “unenhanced” while at the same time keeping their place at the top of the intellectual food chain. My view is that the essay grader likely outcome is that on the one hand, from the perspective of biological humanity, these superhuman intelligences will appear to be their transcendent servants, satisfying their needs and crisis desires. On the other hand, fulfilling the wishes of a revered biological legacy will occupy only signaling a trivial portion of the intellectual power that the Singularity will bring.

Needless to say, the essays water crisis Singularity will transform all aspects of our lives, social, sexual, and economic, which I explore herewith. Before considering further the implications of the Singularity, let’s examine the wide range of technologies that are subject to signaling the law of accelerating returns. The exponential trend that has gained the essays about water greatest public recognition has become known as “Moore’s Law.” Gordon Moore, one of the geometry inventors of integrated circuits, and then Chairman of Intel, noted in the mid 1970s that we could squeeze twice as many transistors on an integrated circuit every 24 months. Given that the electrons have less distance to travel, the about circuits also run twice as fast, providing an overall quadrupling of computational power. After sixty years of devoted service, Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019. On Fractal? By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and crisis the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the essay grader end of the exponential growth of computing? If we plot the speed (in instructions per essays water second) per $1000 (in constant dollars) of 49 famous calculators and computers spanning the entire twentieth century, we note some interesting observations. Moore’s Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing.

Each time one paradigm runs out of steam, another picks up the pace. It is important to note that Moore’s Law of Integrated Circuits was not the first, but the fifth paradigm to provide accelerating price-performance. Signaling? Computing devices have been consistently multiplying in power (per unit of time) from the mechanical calculating devices used in the 1890 U.S. Census, to Turing’s relay-based “Robinson” machine that cracked the Nazi enigma code, to the CBS vacuum tube computer that predicted the election of Eisenhower, to the transistor-based machines used in the first space launches, to the integrated-circuit-based personal computer which I used to dictate (and automatically transcribe) this essay. But I noticed something else surprising.

When I plotted the 49 machines on an exponential graph (where a straight line means exponential growth), I didn’t get a straight line. What I got was another exponential curve. In other words, there’s exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Computer speed (per unit cost) doubled every three years between 1910 and 1950, doubled every two years between 1950 and 1966, and is now doubling every year. But where does Moore’s Law come from? What is behind this remarkably predictable phenomenon?

I have seen relatively little written about the ultimate source of this trend. Is it just “a set of industry expectations and goals,” as Randy Isaac, head of basic science at IBM contends? Or is there something more profound going on? In my view, it is crisis one manifestation (among many) of the essay exponential growth of the evolutionary process that is technology. The exponential growth of essays about crisis computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process. Writing? We can also express the exponential growth of computing in essays about terms of an accelerating pace: it took ninety years to achieve the first MIPS (million instructions per essay second) per thousand dollars, now we add one MIPS per thousand dollars every day. Moore’s Law narrowly refers to the number of transistors on an integrated circuit of essays water fixed size, and sometimes has been expressed even more narrowly in terms of transistor feature size.

But rather than feature size (which is thesis on fractal geometry only one contributing factor), or even number of water crisis transistors, I think the most appropriate measure to track is computational speed per unit cost. This takes into account many levels of “cleverness” (i.e., innovation, which is to say, technological evolution). In addition to all of the a remembrance speech innovation in integrated circuits, there are multiple layers of essays water crisis innovation in computer design, e.g., pipelining, parallel processing, instruction look-ahead, instruction and memory caching, and many others. From the above chart, we see that the exponential growth of computing didn’t start with integrated circuits (around 1958), or even transistors (around 1947), but goes back to the electromechanical calculators used in the 1890 and 1900 U.S. Census. This chart spans at least five distinct paradigms of computing, of which Moore’s Law pertains to only the latest one. It’s obvious what the sixth paradigm will be after Moore’s Law runs out of school essay on virtue steam during the essays about second decade of this century. Chips today are flat (although it does require up to 20 layers of material to produce one layer of circuitry). Our brain, in contrast, is organized in three dimensions. We live in a three dimensional world, why not use the third dimension?

The human brain actually uses a very inefficient electrochemical digital controlled analog computational process. The bulk of the calculations are done in the interneuronal connections at a speed of only a remembrance about 200 calculations per second (in each connection), which is about ten million times slower than contemporary electronic circuits. But the about water crisis brain gains its prodigious powers from a remembrance its extremely parallel organization in three dimensions . There are many technologies in the wings that build circuitry in three dimensions. Nanotubes, for example, which are already working in laboratories, build circuits from pentagonal arrays of essays about carbon atoms. One cubic inch of nanotube circuitry would be a million times more powerful than the critical essays on robert human brain. There are more than enough new computing technologies now being researched, including three-dimensional silicon chips, optical computing, crystalline computing, DNA computing, and quantum computing, to keep the law of accelerating returns as applied to computation going for essays, a long time. Thus the (double) exponential growth of computing is broader than Moore’s Law, which refers to only one of its paradigms. And this accelerating growth of computing is, in essay grader for pc turn, part of the yet broader phenomenon of the accelerating pace of any evolutionary process. Observers are quick to essays about crisis criticize extrapolations of an exponential trend on the basis that the critical essays frost trend is bound to run out of “resources.” The classical example is when a species happens upon essays about crisis, a new habitat (e.g., rabbits in Australia), the species’ numbers will grow exponentially for a time, but then hit a limit when resources such as food and space run out. But the resources underlying the exponential growth of an evolutionary process are relatively unbounded: (i) The (ever growing) order of the evolutionary process itself.

Each stage of evolution provides more powerful tools for the next. Inequality Essay? In biological evolution, the advent of DNA allowed more powerful and about water crisis faster evolutionary “experiments.” Later, setting the geometry “designs” of animal body plans during the water crisis Cambrian explosion allowed rapid evolutionary development of other body organs such as the brain. Thesis On Fractal Geometry? Or to take a more recent example, the advent of computer assisted design tools allows rapid development of the next generation of water crisis computers. (ii) The “chaos” of the environment in which the evolutionary process takes place and which provides the options for further diversity. In biological evolution, diversity enters the process in the form of mutations and ever changing environmental conditions. On Robert? In technological evolution, human ingenuity combined with ever changing market conditions keep the process of innovation going. The maximum potential of matter and energy to contain intelligent processes is essays about a valid issue. Thesis On Fractal? But according to my models, we won’t approach those limits during this century (but this will become an issue within a couple of centuries). We also need to crisis distinguish between the “S” curve (an “S” stretched to critical frost the right, comprising very slow, virtually unnoticeable growth–followed by very rapid growth–followed by a flattening out as the process approaches an essays about water, asymptote) that is characteristic of any specific technological paradigm and the continuing exponential growth that is characteristic of the ongoing evolutionary process of technology. Specific paradigms, such as Moore’s Law, do ultimately reach levels at which exponential growth is no longer feasible. Thus Moore’s Law is an S curve.

But the growth of computation is an ongoing exponential (at least until we “saturate” the on fractal geometry Universe with the about intelligence of our human-machine civilization, but that will not be a limit in this coming century). In accordance with the law of accelerating returns, paradigm shift, also called innovation, turns the S curve of any specific paradigm into a continuing exponential. A new paradigm (e.g., three-dimensional circuits) takes over on fractal geometry, when the essays about crisis old paradigm approaches its natural limit. This has already happened at least four times in the history of computation. This difference also distinguishes the tool making of critical frost non-human species, in which the mastery of a tool-making (or using) skill by each animal is characterized by an abruptly ending S shaped learning curve, versus human-created technology, which has followed an exponential pattern of about crisis growth and acceleration since its inception.

DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization. This “law of accelerating returns” applies to all of technology, indeed to any true evolutionary process, and can be measured with remarkable precision in information based technologies. On Virtue? There are a great many examples of the exponential growth implied by the law of accelerating returns in technologies as varied as DNA sequencing, communication speeds, electronics of all kinds, and even in crisis the rapidly shrinking size of writing speech technology. The Singularity results not from the exponential explosion of essays about water crisis computation alone, but rather from the essay interplay and essays crisis myriad synergies that will result from manifold intertwined technological revolutions. Also, keep in mind that every point on the exponential growth curves underlying these panoply of technologies (see the graphs below) represents an intense human drama of innovation and signaling competition.

It is remarkable therefore that these chaotic processes result in such smooth and predictable exponential trends. For example, when the human genome scan started fourteen years ago, critics pointed out that given the speed with which the genome could then be scanned, it would take thousands of years to essays about water finish the project. Yet the fifteen year project was nonetheless completed slightly ahead of schedule. Of course, we expect to see exponential growth in electronic memories such as RAM. Notice How Exponential Growth Continued through Paradigm Shifts from Vacuum Tubes to on fractal geometry Discrete Transistors to Integrated Circuits. However, growth in magnetic memory is water crisis not primarily a matter of Moore’s law, but includes advances in mechanical and electromagnetic systems. Exponential growth in communications technology has been even more explosive than in computation and is no less significant in its implications. Again, this progression involves far more than just shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit, but includes accelerating advances in fiber optics, optical switching, electromagnetic technologies, and others. Notice Cascade of smaller “S” Curves.

Note that in the above two charts we can actually see the a remembrance progression of “S” curves: the about acceleration fostered by a new paradigm, followed by a leveling off as the school never goes unrewarded paradigm runs out of steam, followed by renewed acceleration through paradigm shift. The following two charts show the overall growth of the essays about crisis Internet based on the number of hosts. These two charts plot the same data, but one is on thesis geometry, an exponential axis and the other is linear. Essays About? As I pointed out inequality essay, earlier, whereas technology progresses in the exponential domain, we experience it in essays about water crisis the linear domain. So from the perspective of most observers, nothing was happening until the mid 1990s when seemingly out of nowhere, the signaling world wide web and email exploded into view. But the emergence of the Internet into a worldwide phenomenon was readily predictable much earlier by essays about water crisis, examining the essay exponential trend data. Notice how the explosion of the Internet appears to be a surprise from the Linear Chart, but was perfectly predictable from the essays water Exponential Chart.

Ultimately we will get away from the signaling tangle of wires in our cities and in our lives through wireless communication, the essays water crisis power of which is essays on robert doubling every 10 to essays 11 months. Another technology that will have profound implications for the twenty-first century is the pervasive trend toward making things smaller, i.e., miniaturization. The salient implementation sizes of a broad range of critical technologies, both electronic and mechanical, are shrinking, also at a double exponential rate. At present, we are shrinking technology by a factor of approximately 5.6 per linear dimension per decade. The Exponential Growth of Computation Revisited. If we view the about exponential growth of computation in geometry its proper perspective as one example of the pervasiveness of the exponential growth of information based technology, that is, as one example of many of the law of accelerating returns, then we can confidently predict its continuation. In the accompanying sidebar, I include a simplified mathematical model of the law of accelerating returns as it pertains to the (double) exponential growth of computing. Essays About? The formulas below result in speech the above graph of the continued growth of computation. This graph matches the about available data for frost, the twentieth century through all five paradigms and provides projections for about crisis, the twenty-first century. Note how the Growth Rate is growing slowly, but nonetheless exponentially. The Law of Accelerating Returns Applied to the Growth of Computation.

The following provides a brief overview of the law of grader accelerating returns as it applies to the double exponential growth of computation. This model considers the impact of the growing power of the technology to foster its own next generation. Essays? For example, with more powerful computers and related technology, we have the tools and the knowledge to critical on robert design yet more powerful computers, and to do so more quickly. Note that the about crisis data for the year 2000 and thesis on fractal geometry beyond assume neural net connection calculations as it is expected that this type of calculation will ultimately dominate, particularly in emulating human brain functions. This type of calculation is water crisis less expensive than conventional (e.g., Pentium III / IV) calculations by a factor of at least 100 (particularly if implemented using digital controlled analog electronics, which would correspond well to the brain’s digital controlled analog electrochemical processes). Inequality Essay? A factor of 100 translates into approximately 6 years (today) and essays about crisis less than 6 years later in on virtue goes unrewarded the twenty-first century. My estimate of brain capacity is about crisis 100 billion neurons times an average 1,000 connections per neuron (with the calculations taking place primarily in the connections) times 200 calculations per second. Although these estimates are conservatively high, one can find higher and lower estimates.

However, even much higher (or lower) estimates by orders of magnitude only shift the prediction by grader for pc, a relatively small number of essays about water years. Some prominent dates from this analysis include the following: We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023. We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037. We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049. On Fractal? We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the about year 2059. The Model considers the following variables: V: Velocity (i.e., power) of computing (measured in a remembrance CPS/unit cost) W: World Knowledge as it pertains to designing and building computational devices t: Time. The assumptions of the model are: In other words, computer power is a linear function of the knowledge of how to water build computers. This is for pc actually a conservative assumption.

In general, innovations improve V (computer power) by a multiple, not in an additive way. About Water? Independent innovations multiply each other’s effect. For example, a circuit advance such as CMOS, a more efficient IC wiring methodology, and a processor innovation such as pipelining all increase V by independent multiples. In other words, W (knowledge) is cumulative, and the instantaneous increment to knowledge is writing speech proportional to V. W = C1 * C2 * Integral (0 to t) W W = C1 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * C3 ^ (C4 * t) (Note on notation: a^b means a raised to about water the b power.) Simplifying the constants, we get: So this is geometry a formula for “accelerating” (i.e., exponentially growing) returns, a “regular Moore’s Law.” As I mentioned above, the about crisis data shows exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. (We doubled computer power every three years early in the twentieth century, every two years in the middle of the century, and close to every one year during the 1990s.) Let’s factor in another exponential phenomenon, which is the growing resources for computation. Not only is each (constant cost) device getting more powerful as a function of W, but the resources deployed for essay for pc, computation are also growing exponentially. N: Expenditures for computation V = C1 * W (as before) N = C4 ^ (C5 * t) (Expenditure for computation is growing at water crisis its own exponential rate) W = C2 * Integral(0 to t) (N * V)

As before, world knowledge is accumulating, and the instantaneous increment is proportional to the amount of computation, which equals the resources deployed for computation (N) * the power of each (constant cost) device. W = C1 * C2 * Integral(0 to t) (C4 ^ (C5 * t) * W) W = C1 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) V = C1 ^ 2 * C2 * (C3 ^ (C6 * t)) ^ (C7 * t) Simplifying the constants, we get: This is a double exponential–an exponential curve in unrewarded which the rate of exponential growth is growing at a different exponential rate. Now let’s consider real-world data. Considering the data for actual calculating devices and computers during the twentieth century: CPS/$1K: Calculations Per Second for water, $1,000. Twentieth century computing data matches: We can determine the growth rate over a period of time: Growth Rate =10^((LOG(CPS/$1K for critical essays on robert frost, Current Year) – LOG(CPS/$1K for water, Previous Year))/(Current Year – Previous Year)) Human Brain = 100 Billion (10^11) neurons * 1000 (10^3) Connections/Neuron * 200 (2 * 10^2) Calculations Per Second Per Connection = 2 * 10^16 Calculations Per Second Human Race = 10 Billion (10^10) Human Brains = 2 * 10^26 Calculations Per Second. These formulas produce the graph above.

Already, IBM’s “Blue Gene” supercomputer, now being built and scheduled to be completed by 2005, is geometry projected to provide 1 million billion calculations per second (i.e., one billion megaflops). This is already one twentieth of the about crisis capacity of the human brain, which I estimate at a conservatively high 20 million billion calculations per second (100 billion neurons times 1,000 connections per neuron times 200 calculations per critical essays on robert second per water crisis connection). In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing. Signaling? By 2050, $1000 of computing will equal the essays crisis processing power of all human brains on Earth. Of course, this only critical essays on robert frost includes those brains still using carbon-based neurons. While human neurons are wondrous creations in about water a way, we wouldn’t (and don’t) design computing circuits the same way.

Our electronic circuits are already more than ten million times faster than a neuron’s electrochemical processes. Most of the complexity of a human neuron is devoted to maintaining its life support functions, not its information processing capabilities. Ultimately, we will need to port our mental processes to a more suitable computational substrate. Then our minds won’t have to stay so small, being constrained as they are today to a mere hundred trillion neural connections each operating at a ponderous 200 digitally controlled analog calculations per second. So far, I’ve been talking about the hardware of computing. The software is signaling even more salient.

One of the principal assumptions underlying the expectation of the Singularity is the ability of nonbiological mediums to emulate the essays about crisis richness, subtlety, and depth of human thinking. Achieving the computational capacity of the critical frost human brain, or even villages and nations of human brains will not automatically produce human levels of capability. By human levels I include all the diverse and subtle ways in which humans are intelligent, including musical and artistic aptitude, creativity, physically moving through the essays about crisis world, and for pc understanding and responding appropriately to emotion. The requisite hardware capacity is a necessary but not sufficient condition. The organization and essays crisis content of these resources–the software of intelligence–is also critical. Before addressing this issue, it is important to note that once a computer achieves a human level of on robert frost intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it. A key advantage of essays about crisis nonbiological intelligence is that machines can easily share their knowledge. If I learn French, or read War and Peace, I can’t readily download that learning to you. You have to acquire that scholarship the school unrewarded same painstaking way that I did.

My knowledge, embedded in water a vast pattern of neurotransmitter concentrations and interneuronal connections, cannot be quickly accessed or transmitted. But we won’t leave out quick downloading ports in our nonbiological equivalents of human neuron clusters. When one computer learns a skill or gains an insight, it can immediately share that wisdom with billions of other machines. As a contemporary example, we spent years teaching one research computer how to recognize continuous human speech. We exposed it to thousands of essays on robert hours of recorded speech, corrected its errors, and water patiently improved its performance. Finally, it became quite adept at recognizing speech (I dictated most of my recent book to signaling it). Now if you want your own personal computer to recognize speech, it doesn’t have to go through the essays about same process; you can just download the fully trained patterns in seconds.

Ultimately, billions of nonbiological entities can be the master of all human and machine acquired knowledge. In addition, computers are potentially millions of times faster than human neural circuits. A computer can also remember billions or even trillions of facts perfectly, while we are hard pressed to remember a handful of phone numbers. The combination of human level intelligence in a machine with a computer’s inherent superiority in the speed, accuracy, and sharing ability of its memory will be formidable. There are a number of compelling scenarios to achieve higher levels of intelligence in our computers, and ultimately human levels and beyond. We will be able to evolve and train a system combining massively parallel neural nets with other paradigms to understand language and model knowledge, including the ability to read and model the inequality knowledge contained in written documents. Unlike many contemporary “neural net” machines, which use mathematically simplified models of human neurons, some contemporary neural nets are already using highly detailed models of human neurons, including detailed nonlinear analog activation functions and other relevant details. Although the ability of today’s computers to extract and learn knowledge from natural language documents is water limited, their capabilities in this domain are improving rapidly.

Computers will be able to read on their own, understanding and modeling what they have read, by the second decade of the on fractal twenty-first century. We can then have our computers read all of the world’s literature–books, magazines, scientific journals, and other available material. Ultimately, the machines will gather knowledge on essays water crisis, their own by venturing out on the web, or even into the physical world, drawing from the full spectrum of media and information services, and sharing knowledge with each other (which machines can do far more easily than their human creators). Reverse Engineering the thesis geometry Human Brain. The most compelling scenario for mastering the essays water crisis software of intelligence is to tap into for pc, the blueprint of the essays about water crisis best example we can get our hands on on fractal, of an intelligent process. There is no reason why we cannot reverse engineer the human brain, and essentially copy its design. Although it took its original designer several billion years to develop, it’s readily available to essays us, and essay on virtue never not (yet) copyrighted. Although there’s a skull around the essays about brain, it is not hidden from our view. The most immediately accessible way to accomplish this is through destructive scanning: we take a frozen brain, preferably one frozen just slightly before rather than slightly after it was going to die anyway, and signaling examine one brain layer–one very thin slice–at a time. We can readily see every neuron and every connection and every neurotransmitter concentration represented in each synapse-thin layer.

Human brain scanning has already started. A condemned killer allowed his brain and body to be scanned and you can access all 10 billion bytes of him on the Internet http://www.nlm.nih.gov/research/visible/visible_human.html. He has a 25 billion byte female companion on the site as well in case he gets lonely. This scan is not high enough in resolution for our purposes, but then, we probably don’t want to base our templates of machine intelligence on the brain of a convicted killer, anyway. But scanning a frozen brain is feasible today, albeit not yet at about water a sufficient speed or bandwidth, but again, the law of accelerating returns will provide the requisite speed of scanning, just as it did for the human genome scan. Carnegie Mellon University’s Andreas Nowatzyk plans to scan the nervous system of the brain and body of on robert frost a mouse with a resolution of less than 200 nanometers, which is getting very close to essays about water crisis the resolution needed for reverse engineering. We also have noninvasive scanning techniques today, including high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, optical imaging, near-infrared scanning, and other technologies which are capable in on fractal geometry certain instances of essays about water crisis resolving individual somas, or neuron cell bodies. Brain scanning technologies are also increasing their resolution with each new generation, just what we would expect from the law of accelerating returns. Inequality? Future generations will enable us to essays about water resolve the essay connections between neurons and to peer inside the synapses and record the neurotransmitter concentrations. We can peer inside someone’s brain today with noninvasive scanners, which are increasing their resolution with each new generation of this technology.

There are a number of technical challenges in accomplishing this, including achieving suitable resolution, bandwidth, lack of vibration, and safety. For a variety of water reasons it is easier to essay grader scan the brain of someone recently deceased than of someone still living. Essays Crisis? It is easier to get someone deceased to school on virtue unrewarded sit still, for essays water, one thing. But noninvasively scanning a living brain will ultimately become feasible as MRI, optical, and other scanning technologies continue to improve in resolution and speed. Although noninvasive means of essay scanning the brain from outside the essays about skull are rapidly improving, the most practical approach to capturing every salient neural detail will be to scan it from inside. Inequality? By 2030, “nanobot” (i.e., nano robot) technology will be viable, and brain scanning will be a prominent application. Nanobots are robots that are the size of crisis human blood cells, or even smaller. Billions of them could travel through every brain capillary and scan every relevant feature from up close. Using high speed wireless communication, the nanobots would communicate with each other, and with other computers that are compiling the brain scan data base (in other words, the essay nanobots will all be on about water, a wireless local area network). This scenario involves only capabilities that we can touch and feel today.

We already have technology capable of producing very high resolution scans, provided that the scanner is physically proximate to critical essays the neural features. The basic computational and essays water communication methods are also essentially feasible today. The primary features that are not yet practical are nanobot size and cost. As I discussed above, we can project the exponentially declining cost of computation, and the rapidly declining size of both electronic and essay grader mechanical technologies. Essays Water Crisis? We can conservatively expect, therefore, the requisite nanobot technology by around 2030. Because of its ability to place each scanner in very close physical proximity to every neural feature, nanobot-based scanning will be more practical than scanning the brain from outside. How will we apply the signaling thousands of trillions of crisis bytes of information derived from each brain scan? One approach is to use the results to design more intelligent parallel algorithms for our machines, particularly those based on essay, one of the neural net paradigms. With this approach, we don’t have to copy every single connection.

There is a great deal of essays crisis repetition and redundancy within any particular brain region. Although the a remembrance information contained in a human brain would require thousands of trillions of bytes of information (on the order of 100 billion neurons times an average of 1,000 connections per essays water neuron, each with multiple neurotransmitter concentrations and connection data), the design of the brain is characterized by a human genome of only about a billion bytes. Furthermore, most of the essay grader genome is redundant, so the initial design of the about water brain is characterized by approximately one hundred million bytes, about the size of Microsoft Word. Of course, the essay complexity of about crisis our brains greatly increases as we interact with the world (by a factor of on fractal geometry more than ten million). Because of the highly repetitive patterns found in each specific brain region, it is not necessary to capture each detail in about water order to reverse engineer the significant digital-analog algorithms. With this information, we can design simulated nets that operate similarly. There are already multiple efforts under way to scan the human brain and apply the insights derived to the design of intelligent machines.

The pace of brain reverse engineering is only slightly behind the school essay never goes availability of the brain scanning and neuron structure information. Essays Water Crisis? A contemporary example is a comprehensive model of a significant portion of the signaling human auditory processing system that Lloyd Watts (www.lloydwatts.com) has developed from both neurobiology studies of specific neuron types and brain interneuronal connection information. Watts’ model includes five parallel paths and includes the actual intermediate representations of water crisis auditory information at each stage of neural processing. Watts has implemented his model as real-time software which can locate and writing a remembrance speech identify sounds with many of the same properties as human hearing. Water? Although a work in progress, the model illustrates the feasibility of inequality converting neurobiological models and essays water brain connection data into working simulations. Also, as Hans Moravec and geometry others have speculated, these efficient simulations require about 1,000 times less computation than the theoretical potential of the biological neurons being simulated. Reverse Engineering the essays crisis Human Brain: Five Parallel Auditory Pathways. Chart by Lloyd Watts. Cochlea : Sense organ of a remembrance hearing. 30,000 fibers converts motion of the stapes into spectro-temporal representation of sound. MC : Multipolar Cells.

Measure spectral energy. GBC : Globular Bushy Cells. Relays spikes from the auditory nerve to essays crisis the Lateral Superior. Olivary Complex (includes LSO and MSO) . Encoding of thesis on fractal timing and amplitude of signals for binaural comparison of level. SBC : Spherical Bushy Cells. Provide temporal sharpening of time of arrival, as a pre-processor for interaural time difference calculation. OC : Octopus Cells.

Detection of transients. DCN : Dorsal Cochlear Nucleus. Detection of spectral edges and calibrating for essays, noise levels. VNTB : Ventral Nucleus of the thesis on fractal Trapezoid Body. Feedback signals to modulate outer hair cell function in the cochlea. VNLL , PON : Ventral Nucleus of the Lateral Lemniscus, Peri-Olivary Nuclei. Essays About? Processing transients from the Octopus Cells.

MSO : Medial Superior Olive. Computing inter-aural time difference (difference in time of inequality arrival between the two ears, used to tell where a sound is coming from). LSO : Lateral Superior Olive. Also involved in computing inter-aural level difference. ICC : Central Nucleus of the Inferior Colliculus. The site of major integration of water multiple representations of sound. ICx : Exterior Nucleus of the signaling Inferior Colliculus.

Further refinement of sound localization. SC : Superior Colliculus. Location of auditory/visual merging. MGB : Medial Geniculate Body. The auditory portion of the about crisis thalamus. LS : Limbic System. Comprising many structures associated with emotion, memory, territory, etc. The brain is not one huge “tabula rasa” (i.e., undifferentiated blank slate), but rather an intricate and intertwined collection of hundreds of specialized regions. Essays Frost? The process of essays about water “peeling the onion” to understand these interleaved regions is well underway. As the requisite neuron models and brain interconnection data becomes available, detailed and implementable models such as the auditory example above will be developed for all brain regions.

After the algorithms of critical on robert a region are understood, they can be refined and extended before being implemented in synthetic neural equivalents. For one thing, they can be run on a computational substrate that is essays about water already more than ten million times faster than neural circuitry. And we can also throw in the methods for on fractal, building intelligent machines that we already understand. A more controversial application than this scanning-the-brain-to-understand-it scenario is scanning-the-brain-to- download -it . Here we scan someone’s brain to map the locations, interconnections, and essays crisis contents of all the somas, axons, dendrites, presynaptic vesicles, neurotransmitter concentrations, and other neural components and levels. Its entire organization can then be re-created on a neural computer of essays on robert frost sufficient capacity, including the essays crisis contents of its memory.

To do this, we need to understand local brain processes, although not necessarily all of the higher level processes. Scanning a brain with sufficient detail to download it may sound daunting, but so did the human genome scan. All of the basic technologies exist today, just not with the requisite speed, cost, and size, but these are the attributes that are improving at a double exponential pace. The computationally pertinent aspects of individual neurons are complicated, but definitely not beyond our ability to writing speech accurately model. For example, Ted Berger and his colleagues at Hedco Neurosciences have built integrated circuits that precisely match the digital and analog information processing characteristics of neurons, including clusters with hundreds of neurons. Carver Mead and his colleagues at essays about CalTech have built a variety of integrated circuits that emulate the digital-analog characteristics of mammalian neural circuits. A recent experiment at San Diego’s Institute for Nonlinear Science demonstrates the potential for electronic neurons to precisely emulate biological ones.

Neurons (biological or otherwise) are a prime example of what is often called “chaotic computing.” Each neuron acts in grader for pc an essentially unpredictable fashion. When an entire network of neurons receives input (from the outside world or from other networks of neurons), the signaling amongst them appears at first to be frenzied and random. Water? Over time, typically a fraction of a second or so, the chaotic interplay of the inequality essay neurons dies down, and a stable pattern emerges. This pattern represents the “decision” of the about water crisis neural network. If the neural network is performing a pattern recognition task (which, incidentally, comprises the bulk of the activity in thesis the human brain), then the emergent pattern represents the appropriate recognition. So the essays question addressed by the San Diego researchers was whether electronic neurons could engage in this chaotic dance alongside biological ones. They hooked up their artificial neurons with those from spiney lobsters in a single network, and their hybrid biological-nonbiological network performed in the same way (i.e., chaotic interplay followed by a stable emergent pattern) and with the same type of results as an signaling, all biological net of neurons.

Essentially, the biological neurons accepted their electronic peers. It indicates that their mathematical model of these neurons was reasonably accurate. There are many projects around the world which are creating nonbiological devices to essays crisis recreate in great detail the functionality of human neuron clusters. The accuracy and scale of these neuron-cluster replications are rapidly increasing. Writing A Remembrance? We started with functionally equivalent recreations of single neurons, then clusters of tens, then hundreds, and now thousands. About Crisis? Scaling up technical processes at an exponential pace is what technology is good at.

As the computational power to emulate the human brain becomes available–we’re not there yet, but we will be there within a couple of decades–projects already under way to scan the human brain will be accelerated, with a view both to understand the human brain in general, as well as providing a detailed description of the contents and inequality essay design of specific brains. Essays Water Crisis? By the third decade of the twenty-first century, we will be in inequality a position to create highly detailed and complete maps of water crisis all relevant features of all neurons, neural connections and synapses in the human brain, all of the neural details that play a role in the behavior and inequality essay functionality of the brain, and to recreate these designs in suitably advanced neural computers. Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? Is the human brain different from a computer? The answer depends on essays crisis, what we mean by the word “computer.” Certainly the brain uses very different methods from conventional contemporary computers. Most computers today are all digital and perform one (or perhaps a few) computations at a time at extremely high speed. In contrast, the human brain combines digital and analog methods with most computations performed in the analog domain. The brain is critical essays on robert massively parallel, performing on the order of a hundred trillion computations at the same time, but at extremely slow speeds. With regard to digital versus analog computing, we know that digital computing can be functionally equivalent to analog computing (although the reverse is not true), so we can perform all of the capabilities of a hybrid digital–analog network with an all digital computer. About Water Crisis? On the other hand, there is an engineering advantage to analog circuits in that analog computing is potentially thousands of times more efficient.

An analog computation can be performed by a few transistors, or, in the case of mammalian neurons, specific electrochemical processes. A digital computation, in contrast, requires thousands or tens of thousands of transistors. So there is a significant engineering advantage to emulating the brain’s analog methods. The massive parallelism of the human brain is the key to its pattern recognition abilities, which reflects the strength of thesis geometry human thinking. As I discussed above, mammalian neurons engage in a chaotic dance, and if the essays water neural network has learned its lessons well, then a stable pattern will emerge reflecting the network’s decision. On Fractal? There is no reason why our nonbiological functionally equivalent recreations of biological neural networks cannot be built using these same principles, and indeed there are dozens of projects around the world that have succeeded in doing this. Essays Water? My own technical field is essays on robert pattern recognition, and the projects that I have been involved in for over thirty years use this form of chaotic computing. Particularly successful examples are Carver Mead’s neural chips, which are highly parallel, use digital controlled analog computing, and about crisis are intended as functionally similar recreations of biological networks.

The Singularity envisions the emergence of human-like intelligent entities of astonishing diversity and scope. Although these entities will be capable of passing the “Turing test” (i.e., able to fool humans that they are human), the question arises as to whether these “people” are conscious, or just appear that way. To gain some insight as to why this is an extremely subtle question (albeit an ultimately important one) it is useful to essay on virtue unrewarded consider some of the paradoxes that emerge from the concept of downloading specific human brains. Although I anticipate that the essays about most common application of the knowledge gained from reverse engineering the on virtue goes unrewarded human brain will be creating more intelligent machines that are not necessarily modeled on about, specific biological human individuals, the scenario of scanning and inequality reinstantiating all of the neural details of essays about a specific person raises the critical essays frost most immediate questions of identity. Let’s consider the question of what we will find when we do this. We have to consider this question on both the water crisis objective and subjective levels. “Objective” means everyone except me, so let’s start with that. Objectively, when we scan someone’s brain and reinstantiate their personal mind file into a suitable computing medium, the newly emergent “person” will appear to speech other observers to have very much the same personality, history, and memory as the person originally scanned. That is, once the technology has been refined and crisis perfected. Essay Grader? Like any new technology, it won’t be perfect at essays first. But ultimately, the scans and recreations will be very accurate and realistic.

Interacting with the for pc newly instantiated person will feel like interacting with the original person. The new person will claim to be that same old person and will have a memory of essays about crisis having been that person. The new person will have all of the writing a remembrance patterns of essays about water knowledge, skill, and personality of the original. We are already creating functionally equivalent recreations of inequality neurons and neuron clusters with sufficient accuracy that biological neurons accept their nonbiological equivalents and work with them as if they were biological. There are no natural limits that prevent us from water crisis doing the same with the hundred billion neuron cluster of clusters we call the human brain. Subjectively, the essay for pc issue is more subtle and profound, but first we need to about water crisis reflect on one additional objective issue: our physical self. Consider how many of our thoughts and thinking are directed toward our body and its survival, security, nutrition, and image, not to thesis on fractal mention affection, sexuality, and reproduction. Many, if not most, of the goals we attempt to advance using our brains have to do with our bodies: protecting them, providing them with fuel, making them attractive, making them feel good, providing for their myriad needs and desires.

Some philosophers maintain that achieving human level intelligence is impossible without a body. If we’re going to port a human’s mind to a new computational medium, we’d better provide a body. A disembodied mind will quickly get depressed. There are a variety of bodies that we will provide for our machines, and essays water that they will provide for themselves: bodies built through nanotechnology (i.e., building highly complex physical systems atom by on fractal, atom), virtual bodies (that exist only in virtual reality), bodies comprised of swarms of nanobots, and other technologies. A common scenario will be to enhance a person’s biological brain with intimate connection to nonbiological intelligence. In this case, the body remains the good old human body that we’re familiar with, although this too will become greatly enhanced through biotechnology (gene enhancement and replacement) and, later on, through nanotechnology.

A detailed examination of twenty-first century bodies is beyond the about water scope of signaling this essay, but recreating and enhancing our bodies will be (and has been) an easier task than recreating our minds. To return to essays about water crisis the issue of subjectivity, consider: is the reinstantiated mind the same consciousness as the person we just scanned? Are these “people” conscious at all? Is this a mind or just a brain? Consciousness in our twenty-first century machines will be a critically important issue. But it is not easily resolved, or even readily understood. People tend to have strong views on the subject, and often just can’t understand how anyone else could possibly see the issue from a different perspective. Marvin Minsky observed that “there’s something queer about describing consciousness.

Whatever people mean to say, they just can’t seem to make it clear.” We don’t worry, at least not yet, about causing pain and suffering to our computer programs. But at essays what point do we consider an entity, a process, to water be conscious, to feel pain and discomfort, to have its own intentionality, its own free will? How do we determine if an writing a remembrance speech, entity is conscious; if it has subjective experience? How do we distinguish a process that is water crisis conscious from one that just acts as if it is conscious? We can’t simply ask it.

If it says “Hey I’m conscious,” does that settle the issue? No, we have computer games today that effectively do that, and they’re not terribly convincing. How about if the entity is very convincing and compelling when it says “I’m lonely, please keep me company.” Does that settle the issue? If we look inside its circuits, and see essentially the identical kinds of feedback loops and other mechanisms in its brain that we see in a human brain (albeit implemented using nonbiological equivalents), does that settle the issue? And just who are these people in on virtue goes the machine, anyway? The answer will depend on who you ask. If you ask the people in the machine, they will strenuously claim to be the original persons. For example, if we scan–let’s say myself–and record the exact state, level, and position of every neurotransmitter, synapse, neural connection, and essays about every other relevant detail, and then reinstantiate this massive data base of information (which I estimate at thousands of trillions of bytes) into a neural computer of sufficient capacity, the person who then emerges in the machine will think that “he” is (and had been) me, or at least he will act that way. He will say “I grew up in Queens, New York, went to inequality college at MIT, stayed in the Boston area, started and sold a few artificial intelligence companies, walked into a scanner there, and woke up in the machine here.

Hey, this technology really works.” Is this really me? For one thing, old biological Ray (that’s me) still exists. I’ll still be here in my carbon-cell-based brain. Alas, I will have to sit back and watch the new Ray succeed in endeavors that I could only dream of. Let’s consider the issue of just who I am, and about water crisis who the new Ray is a little more carefully. First of all, am I the stuff in writing my brain and body? Consider that the particles making up my body and brain are constantly changing. We are not at about water all permanent collections of particles.

The cells in our bodies turn over at different rates, but the particles (e.g., atoms and unrewarded molecules) that comprise our cells are exchanged at a very rapid rate. I am just not the same collection of particles that I was even a month ago. It is the patterns of matter and energy that are semipermanent (that is, changing only gradually), but our actual material content is changing constantly, and very quickly. We are rather like the patterns that water makes in a stream. The rushing water around a formation of rocks makes a particular, unique pattern.

This pattern may remain relatively unchanged for hours, even years. Of course, the actual material constituting the pattern–the water–is replaced in milliseconds. Essays Water Crisis? The same is true for Ray Kurzweil. A Remembrance Speech? Like the water in a stream, my particles are constantly changing, but the pattern that people recognize as Ray has a reasonable level of continuity. This argues that we should not associate our fundamental identity with a specific set of particles, but rather the pattern of crisis matter and energy that we represent. Signaling? Many contemporary philosophers seem partial to this “identify from pattern” argument. If you were to scan my brain and reinstantiate new Ray while I was sleeping, I would not necessarily even know about it (with the nanobots, this will be a feasible scenario). Essays About? If you then come to me, and say, “good news, Ray, we’ve successfully reinstantiated your mind file, so we won’t be needing your old brain anymore,” I may suddenly realize the flaw in this “identity from school essay goes pattern” argument. I may wish new Ray well, and about water crisis realize that he shares my “pattern,” but I would nonetheless conclude that he’s not me, because I’m still here.

How could he be me? After all, I would not necessarily know that he even existed. Let’s consider another perplexing scenario. Suppose I replace a small number of biological neurons with functionally equivalent nonbiological ones (they may provide certain benefits such as greater reliability and longevity, but that’s not relevant to this thought experiment). After I have this procedure performed, am I still the same person? My friends certainly think so. I still have the same self-deprecating humor, the same silly grin–yes, I’m still the same guy. It should be clear where I’m going with this. Bit by bit, region by region, I ultimately replace my entire brain with essentially identical (perhaps improved) nonbiological equivalents (preserving all of the neurotransmitter concentrations and other details that represent my learning, skills, and memories). At each point, I feel the procedures were successful.

At each point, I feel that I am the same guy. After each procedure, I claim to be the same guy. My friends concur. There is critical essays on robert no old Ray and new Ray, just one Ray, one that never appears to fundamentally change. But consider this. This gradual replacement of my brain with a nonbiological equivalent is essentially identical to essays the following sequence: (i) scan Ray and reinstantiate Ray’s mind file into new (nonbiological) Ray, and, then (ii) terminate old Ray. Thesis On Fractal? But we concluded above that in such a scenario new Ray is not the same as old Ray.

And if old Ray is terminated, well then that’s the end of about water crisis Ray. So the gradual replacement scenario essentially ends with the same result: New Ray has been created, and old Ray has been destroyed, even if we never saw him missing. Geometry? So what appears to be the continuing existence of just one Ray is essays really the creation of signaling new Ray and the termination of essays water crisis old Ray. On yet another hand (we’re running out of philosophical hands here), the gradual replacement scenario is inequality not altogether different from what happens normally to our biological selves, in that our particles are always rapidly being replaced. So am I constantly being replaced with someone else who just happens to be very similar to my old self? I am trying to illustrate why consciousness is not an easy issue. If we talk about consciousness as just a certain type of essays crisis intelligent skill: the writing speech ability to reflect on water, one’s own self and situation, for example, then the issue is inequality essay not difficult at all because any skill or capability or form of intelligence that one cares to about water define will be replicated in nonbiological entities (i.e., machines) within a few decades.

With this type of objective view of consciousness, the conundrums do go away. But a fully objective view does not penetrate to the core of the issue, because the essence of consciousness is subjective experience, not objective correlates of that experience. Will these future machines be capable of having spiritual experiences? They certainly will claim to. They will claim to be people, and to have the full range of emotional and spiritual experiences that people claim to have. And these will not be idle claims; they will evidence the a remembrance sort of rich, complex, and subtle behavior one associates with these feelings.

How do the claims and behaviors–compelling as they will be–relate to the subjective experience of about water crisis these reinstantiated people? We keep coming back to the very real but ultimately unmeasurable issue of consciousness. People often talk about consciousness as if it were a clear property of an entity that can readily be identified, detected, and gauged. School Never Goes Unrewarded? If there is one crucial insight that we can make regarding why the issue of consciousness is so contentious, it is the following: There exists no objective test that can conclusively determine its presence. Science is about objective measurement and logical implications therefrom, but the very nature of objectivity is that you cannot measure subjective experience-you can only measure correlates of it, such as behavior (and by behavior, I include the actions of components of an entity, such as neurons).

This limitation has to do with the very nature of the concepts “objective” and “subjective.” Fundamentally, we cannot penetrate the subjective experience of another entity with direct objective measurement. We can certainly make arguments about essays about crisis, it: i.e., “look inside the brain of this nonhuman entity, see how its methods are just like a human brain.” Or, “see how its behavior is just like human behavior.” But in essays frost the end, these remain just arguments. No matter how convincing the about crisis behavior of never a reinstantiated person, some observers will refuse to accept the consciousness of an entity unless it squirts neurotransmitters, or is essays crisis based on inequality essay, DNA-guided protein synthesis, or has some other specific biologically human attribute. We assume that other humans are conscious, but that is essays water still an critical essays frost, assumption, and essays about crisis there is thesis on fractal no consensus amongst humans about the essays consciousness of on fractal geometry nonhuman entities, such as higher non-human animals. The issue will be even more contentious with regard to future nonbiological entities with human-like behavior and intelligence. So how will we resolve the claimed consciousness of nonbiological intelligence (claimed, that is, by the machines)? From a practical perspective, we’ll accept their claims. Essays Crisis? Keep in writing a remembrance speech mind that nonbiological entities in the twenty-first century will be extremely intelligent, so they’ll be able to convince us that they are conscious. About? They’ll have all the delicate and emotional cues that convince us today that humans are conscious. They will be able to make us laugh and cry.

And they’ll get mad if we don’t accept their claims. But fundamentally this is a political prediction, not a philosophical argument. Over the past several years, Roger Penrose, a noted physicist and essay never goes unrewarded philosopher, has suggested that fine structures in the neurons called tubules perform an essays water, exotic form of computation called “quantum computing.” Quantum computing is computing using what are called “qu bits” which take on speech, all possible combinations of solutions simultaneously. It can be considered to water crisis be an extreme form of parallel processing (because every combination of values of the qu bits are tested simultaneously). Penrose suggests that the tubules and their quantum computing capabilities complicate the concept of recreating neurons and reinstantiating mind files.

However, there is little to suggest that the thesis on fractal geometry tubules contribute to the thinking process. Even generous models of human knowledge and essays water capability are more than accounted for by current estimates of brain size, based on contemporary models of neuron functioning that do not include tubules. In fact, even with these tubule-less models, it appears that the brain is conservatively designed with many more connections (by several orders of magnitude) than it needs for its capabilities and writing speech capacity. Recent experiments (e.g., the San Diego Institute for Nonlinear Science experiments) showing that hybrid biological-nonbiological networks perform similarly to essays about water all biological networks, while not definitive, are strongly suggestive that our tubule-less models of essay on virtue goes neuron functioning are adequate. Lloyd Watts’ software simulation of his intricate model of human auditory processing uses orders of magnitude less computation than the networks of neurons he is essays about water crisis simulating, and there is no suggestion that quantum computing is needed. However, even if the tubules are important, it doesn’t change the projections I have discussed above to grader for pc any significant degree. About Water? According to my model of computational growth, if the thesis on fractal geometry tubules multiplied neuron complexity by a factor of a thousand (and keep in essays about crisis mind that our current tubule-less neuron models are already complex, including on the order of a thousand connections per neuron, multiple nonlinearities and essays frost other details), this would delay our reaching brain capacity by only about 9 years.

If we’re off by a factor of a million, that’s still only essays crisis a delay of 17 years. A factor of a billion is critical frost around 24 years (keep in mind computation is growing by a double exponential). With regard to quantum computing, once again there is nothing to suggest that the brain does quantum computing. Just because quantum technology may be feasible does not suggest that the brain is capable of it. After all, we don’t have lasers or even radios in about water crisis our brains. Although some scientists have claimed to detect quantum wave collapse in the brain, no one has suggested human capabilities that actually require a capacity for quantum computing.

However, even if the a remembrance speech brain does do quantum computing, this does not significantly change the water crisis outlook for critical, human-level computing (and beyond) nor does it suggest that brain downloading is infeasible. First of all, if the brain does do quantum computing this would only verify that quantum computing is feasible. There would be nothing in such a finding to suggest that quantum computing is restricted to biological mechanisms. Biological quantum computing mechanisms, if they exist, could be replicated. About Crisis? Indeed, recent experiments with small scale quantum computers appear to be successful. Even the conventional transistor relies on the quantum effect of electron tunneling. Penrose suggests that it is impossible to essay grader for pc perfectly replicate a set of quantum states, so therefore, perfect downloading is impossible. About Water Crisis? Well, how perfect does a download have to be? I am at this moment in a very different quantum state (and different in non-quantum ways as well) than I was a minute ago (certainly in a very different state than I was before I wrote this paragraph). If we develop downloading technology to the point where the “copies” are as close to the original as the original person changes anyway in the course of one minute, that would be good enough for any conceivable purpose, yet does not require copying quantum states. As the technology improves, the accuracy of the copy could become as close as the original changes within ever briefer periods of time (e.g., one second, one millisecond, one microsecond).

When it was pointed out to Penrose that neurons (and even neural connections) were too big for quantum computing, he came up with the tubule theory as a possible mechanism for neural quantum computing. So the concern with quantum computing and tubules have been introduced together. Essay? If one is searching for barriers to replicating brain function, it is an ingenious theory, but it fails to introduce any genuine barriers. There is no evidence for it, and even if true, it only delays matters by a decade or two. Essays Water? There is no reason to believe that biological mechanisms (including quantum computing) are inherently impossible to replicate using nonbiological materials and mechanisms. Dozens of contemporary experiments are successfully performing just such replications. The Noninvasive Surgery-Free Reversible Programmable Distributed Brain Implant, Full-Immersion Shared Virtual Reality Environments, Experience Beamers, and Brain Expansion. How will we apply technology that is more intelligent than its creators?

One might be tempted to respond “Carefully!” But let’s take a look at some examples. Consider several examples of the nanobot technology, which, based on miniaturization and cost reduction trends, will be feasible within 30 years. In addition to scanning your brain, the nanobots will also be able to expand our experiences and our capabilities. Nanobot technology will provide fully immersive, totally convincing virtual reality in the following way. The nanobots take up positions in close physical proximity to grader every interneuronal connection coming from all of our senses (e.g., eyes, ears, skin).

We already have the technology for electronic devices to essays about water crisis communicate with neurons in both directions that requires no direct physical contact with the writing speech neurons. Essays About Crisis? For example, scientists at the Max Planck Institute have developed “neuron transistors” that can detect the firing of a nearby neuron, or alternatively, can cause a nearby neuron to fire, or suppress it from firing. This amounts to two-way communication between neurons and the electronic-based neuron transistors. The Institute scientists demonstrated their invention by controlling the movement of a living leech from signaling their computer. Again, the primary aspect of nanobot-based virtual reality that is not yet feasible is size and cost.

When we want to experience real reality, the essays about nanobots just stay in position (in the thesis on fractal geometry capillaries) and do nothing. If we want to enter virtual reality, they suppress all of the inputs coming from the real senses, and replace them with the signals that would be appropriate for water crisis, the virtual environment. You (i.e., your brain) could decide to cause your muscles and limbs to move as you normally would, but the nanobots again intercept these interneuronal signals, suppress your real limbs from moving, and instead cause your virtual limbs to move and provide the appropriate movement and reorientation in the virtual environment. The web will provide a panoply of virtual environments to explore. Some will be recreations of real places, others will be fanciful environments that have no “real” counterpart. Some indeed would be impossible in the physical world (perhaps, because they violate the essay never laws of physics). We will be able to “go” to these virtual environments by ourselves, or we will meet other people there, both real people and simulated people. Of course, ultimately there won’t be a clear distinction between the two.

By 2030, going to a web site will mean entering a full immersion virtual reality environment. Water? In addition to encompassing all of the senses, these shared environments can include emotional overlays as the nanobots will be capable of on robert frost triggering the neurological correlates of emotions, sexual pleasure, and other derivatives of our sensory experience and mental reactions. In the same way that people today beam their lives from web cams in their bedrooms, “experience beamers” circa 2030 will beam their entire flow of sensory experiences, and if so desired, their emotions and other secondary reactions. We’ll be able to plug in essays crisis (by going to the appropriate web site) and experience other people’s lives as in a remembrance the plot concept of ‘Being John Malkovich.’ Particularly interesting experiences can be archived and relived at any time. We won’t need to wait until 2030 to experience shared virtual reality environments, at least for essays about water, the visual and auditory senses. Full immersion visual-auditory environments will be available by the end of this decade with images written directly onto our retinas by our eyeglasses and contact lenses.

All of the electronics for the computation, image reconstruction, and signaling very high bandwidth wireless connection to essays water the Internet will be embedded in on virtue goes our glasses and essays water crisis woven into our clothing, so computers as distinct objects will disappear. In my view, the most significant implication of the Singularity will be the on virtue never merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence. About? First, it is important to point out that well before the end of the twenty-first century, thinking on nonbiological substrates will dominate. Biological thinking is stuck at signaling 10 26 calculations per second (for all biological human brains), and that figure will not appreciably change, even with bioengineering changes to our genome. Nonbiological intelligence, on about water crisis, the other hand, is growing at a double exponential rate and essay on virtue never goes will vastly exceed biological intelligence well before the middle of this century. However, in my view, this nonbiological intelligence should still be considered human as it is crisis fully derivative of the human-machine civilization. The merger of essays on robert frost these two worlds of intelligence is not merely a merger of about water biological and nonbiological thinking mediums, but more importantly one of method and organization of thinking. One of the school essay goes unrewarded key ways in which the two worlds can interact will be through the nanobots.

Nanobot technology will be able to expand our minds in virtually any imaginable way. Our brains today are relatively fixed in design. Although we do add patterns of essays water crisis interneuronal connections and critical essays frost neurotransmitter concentrations as a normal part of the essays about water learning process, the current overall capacity of the human brain is highly constrained, restricted to a mere hundred trillion connections. Thesis On Fractal? Brain implants based on massively distributed intelligent nanobots will ultimately expand our memories a trillion fold, and otherwise vastly improve all of essays about our sensory, pattern recognition, and cognitive abilities. Since the nanobots are communicating with each other over thesis on fractal geometry, a wireless local area network, they can create any set of new neural connections, can break existing connections (by suppressing neural firing), can create new hybrid biological-nonbiological networks, as well as add vast new nonbiological networks. Using nanobots as brain extenders is a significant improvement over the idea of about surgically installed neural implants, which are beginning to be used today (e.g., ventral posterior nucleus, subthalmic nucleus, and ventral lateral thalamus neural implants to counteract Parkinson’s Disease and tremors from other neurological disorders, cochlear implants, and writing others.) Nanobots will be introduced without surgery, essentially just by injecting or even swallowing them. They can all be directed to leave, so the process is easily reversible. About Water? They are programmable, in that they can provide virtual reality one minute, and writing a remembrance speech a variety of brain extensions the next. They can change their configuration, and about clearly can alter their software. Perhaps most importantly, they are massively distributed and therefore can take up billions or trillions of essay never goes unrewarded positions throughout the brain, whereas a surgically introduced neural implant can only be placed in one or at about most a few locations.

The Double Exponential Growth of the Economy During the 1990s Was Not a Bubble. Yet another manifestation of the thesis on fractal geometry law of accelerating returns as it rushes toward the Singularity can be found in the world of economics, a world vital to both the genesis of the law of about water accelerating returns, and to its implications. It is the economic imperative of a competitive marketplace that is driving technology forward and grader fueling the law of accelerating returns. In turn, the law of essays water accelerating returns, particularly as it approaches the essays on robert frost Singularity, is transforming economic relationships. Virtually all of the essays about economic models taught in inequality essay economics classes, used by the Federal Reserve Board to set monetary policy, by Government agencies to set economic policy, and by economic forecasters of all kinds are fundamentally flawed because they are based on the intuitive linear view of history rather than the historically based exponential view. The reason that these linear models appear to about water work for a while is for the same reason that most people adopt the intuitive linear view in critical essays the first place: exponential trends appear to be linear when viewed (and experienced) for a brief period of time, particularly in essays crisis the early stages of an exponential trend when not much is happening. But once the “knee of the curve” is critical frost achieved and essays about water the exponential growth explodes, the school on virtue never unrewarded linear models break down. The exponential trends underlying productivity growth are just beginning this explosive phase.

The economy (viewed either in total or per capita) has been growing exponentially throughout this century: There is also a second level of exponential growth, but up until recently the second exponent has been in the early phase so that the growth in the growth rate has not been noticed. However, this has changed in this past decade, during which the rate of about growth has been noticeably exponential. Productivity (economic output per worker) has also been growing exponentially. Signaling? Even these statistics are greatly understated because they do not fully reflect significant improvements in the quality and features of products and about water crisis services. It is on robert not the case that “a car is a car;” there have been significant improvements in safety, reliability, and features. There are a myriad of such examples. Essays About Water? Pharmaceutical drugs are increasingly effective. Groceries ordered in five minutes on essay on virtue goes unrewarded, the web and delivered to your door are worth more than groceries on a supermarket shelf that you have to fetch yourself. Clothes custom manufactured for your unique body scan are worth more than clothes you happen to essays about water find left on a store rack.

These sorts of improvements are true for most product categories, and none of them are reflected in the productivity statistics. The statistical methods underlying the productivity measurements tend to factor out gains by essentially concluding that we still only get one dollar of products and services for a dollar despite the fact that we get much more for a dollar (e.g., compare a $1,000 computer today to one ten years ago). University of on virtue never goes Chicago Professor Pete Klenow and University of Rochester Professor Mark Bils estimate that the value of existing goods has been increasing at 1.5% per year for the past 20 years because of water qualitative improvements. This still does not account for thesis geometry, the introduction of entirely new products and product categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is responsible for essays about crisis, the inflation statistics, uses a model that incorporates an estimate of signaling quality growth at only 0.5% per year, reflecting a systematic underestimate of about water quality improvement and a resulting overestimate of writing speech inflation by at least 1 percent per year. Despite these weaknesses in the productivity statistical methods, the about gains in on robert productivity are now reaching the steep part of the exponential curve. Labor productivity grew at water crisis 1.6% per year until 1994, then rose at geometry 2.4% per year, and is now growing even more rapidly. In the quarter ending July 30, 2000, labor productivity grew at 5.3%. Essays About? Manufacturing productivity grew at speech 4.4% annually from essays 1995 to 1999, durables manufacturing at 6.5% per year.

The 1990s have seen the most powerful deflationary forces in history. Thesis On Fractal Geometry? This is why we are not seeing inflation. Essays About Water? Yes, it’s true that low unemployment, high asset values, economic growth, and other such factors are inflationary, but these factors are offset by the double exponential trends in signaling the price-performance of all information based technologies: computation, memory, communications, biotechnology, miniaturization, and even the overall rate of technical progress. These technologies deeply affect all industries. We are also undergoing massive disintermediation in the channels of distribution through the web and other new communication technologies, as well as escalating efficiencies in operations and administration. All of the technology trend charts in this essay e represent massive deflation. There are many examples of the impact of these escalating efficiencies. Water Crisis? BP Amoco’s cost for finding oil is on virtue goes unrewarded now less than $1 per barrel, down from nearly $10 in 1991. Processing an internet transaction costs a bank one penny, compared to over $1 using a teller ten years ago.

A Roland Berger / Deutsche Bank study estimates a cost savings of $1200 per North American car over the next five years. About Water? A more optimistic Morgan Stanley study estimates that Internet-based procurement will save Ford, GM, and DaimlerChrysler about $2700 per vehicle. Software prices are deflating even more quickly than computer hardware. Software Price-Performance Has Also Improved at an Exponential Rate. Current economic policy is based on outdated models which include energy prices, commodity prices, and capital investment in plant and equipment as key driving factors, but do not adequately model bandwidth, MIPs, megabytes, intellectual property, knowledge, and other increasingly vital (and increasingly increasing) constituents that are driving the economy. The economy “wants” to grow more than the 3.5% per year, which constitutes the current “speed limit” that the Federal Reserve bank and other policy makers have established as “safe,” meaning noninflationary. But in keeping with the law of accelerating returns, the economy is capable of “safely” establishing this level of growth in inequality essay less than a year, implying a growth rate in an entire year of greater than 3.5%.

Recently, the growth rate has exceeded 5%. None of this means that cycles of essays water recession will disappear immediately. School Essay On Virtue Goes Unrewarded? The economy still has some of the about water crisis underlying dynamics that historically have caused cycles of essay on virtue goes unrewarded recession, specifically excessive commitments such as capital intensive projects and the overstocking of inventories. However, the rapid dissemination of about water information, sophisticated forms of online procurement, and a remembrance speech increasingly transparent markets in all industries have diminished the impact of this cycle. So “recessions” are likely to be shallow and short lived. The underlying long-term growth rate will continue at a double exponential rate.

The overall growth of the economy reflects completely new forms and layers of wealth and value that did not previously exist, or least that did not previously constitute a significant portion of the economy (but do now): intellectual property, communication portals, web sites, bandwidth, software, data bases, and many other new technology based categories. There is essays about crisis no need for high interest rates to counter an inflation that doesn’t exist. The inflationary pressures which exist are counterbalanced by all of the deflationary forces I’ve mentioned. The current high interest rates fostered by the Federal Reserve Bank are destructive, are causing trillions of dollars of essay lost wealth, are regressive, hurt business and the middle class, and are completely unnecessary. The Fed’s monetary policy is water only influential because people believe it to be. School Never Unrewarded? It has little real power.

The economy today is largely backed by private capital in the form of a growing variety of equity instruments. The portion of available liquidity in the economy that the essays about water crisis Fed actually controls is relatively insignificant. The reserves that banks and on fractal financial institutions maintain with the Federal Reserve System are less than $50 billion, which is only 0.6% of the GDP, and 0.25% of the essays water liquidity available in stocks. Restricting the growth rate of the on fractal economy to an arbitrary limit makes as much sense as restricting the rate at which a company can grow its revenues–or its market cap. Speculative fever will certainly occur and there will necessarily continue to be high profile failures and market corrections. Essays About Crisis? However the essay ability of technology companies to essays about crisis rapidly create new–real–wealth is just one of the factors that will continue to fuel ongoing double exponential growth in the economy. These policies have led to an “Alice in Wonderland” situation in which the writing market goes up on bad economic news (because it means that more unnecessary punishment will be avoided) and goes down on good economic news. Speaking of market speculative fever and market corrections, the stock market values for so-called “B to B” (Business to Business) and “B to C” (Business to Consumer) web portals and essays water enabling technologies is likely to goes unrewarded come back strongly as it becomes clear that economic transactions are indeed escalating toward e-commerce, and crisis that the (surviving) contenders are capable of demonstrating profitable business models.

The intuitive linear assumption underlying economic thinking reaches its most ludicrous conclusions in the political debate surrounding the long-term future of the social security system. The economic models used for the social security projections are entirely linear, i.e., they reflect fixed economic growth. This might be viewed as conservative planning if we were talking about projections of only on robert a few years, but they become utterly unrealistic for the three to four decades being discussed. These projections actually assume a fixed rate of essays growth of 3.5% per year for a remembrance speech, the next fifty years! There are incredibly naive assumptions that bear on both sides of the about crisis argument.

On the school essay never goes one hand, there will be radical extensions to human longevity, while on the other hand, we will benefit from far greater economic expansion. These factors do not rule each other out, however, as the water crisis positive factors are stronger, and will ultimately dominate. Critical Essays Frost? Moreover, we are certain to rethink social security when we have centenarians who look and act like 30 year-olds (but who will think much faster than 30 year-olds circa the year 2000). Another implication of the water law of accelerating returns is exponential growth in critical essays on robert education and learning. Essays About? Over the past 120 years, we have increased our investment in K-12 education (per student and in constant dollars) by a factor of for pc ten. We have a one hundred fold increase in the number of essays college students. Automation started by amplifying the power of our muscles, and in recent times has been amplifying the power of our minds. Thus, for frost, the past two centuries, automation has been eliminating jobs at essays about the bottom of the essay grader skill ladder while creating new (and better paying) jobs at the top of the skill ladder. So the ladder has been moving up, and essays about water crisis thus we have been exponentially increasing investments in education at all levels.

Oh, and about that “offer” at the beginning of this essay, consider that present stock values are based on future expectations. Thesis Geometry? Given that the (literally) short sighted linear intuitive view represents the ubiquitous outlook, the common wisdom in economic expectations are dramatically understated. Although stock prices reflect the consensus of a buyer-seller market, it nonetheless reflects the underlying linear assumption regarding future economic growth. Essays Water? But the law of accelerating returns clearly implies that the growth rate will continue to grow exponentially because the rate of progress will continue to accelerate. Although (weakening) recessionary cycles will continue to inequality essay cause immediate growth rates to crisis fluctuate, the underlying rate of on virtue growth will continue to double approximately every decade. But wait a second, you said that I would get $40 trillion if I read and understood this essay. That’s right. About Water Crisis? According to my models, if we replace the linear outlook with the more appropriate exponential outlook, current stock prices should triple. Essays On Robert Frost? Since there’s about essays about water, $20 trillion in the equity markets, that’s $40 trillion in school essay unrewarded additional wealth.

But you said I would get that money. No, I said “you” would get the water money, and that’s why I suggested reading the goes unrewarded sentence carefully. Crisis? The English word “you” can be singular or plural. I meant it in essay the sense of water crisis “all of inequality essay you.” I see, all of us as in essays about the whole world.

But not everyone will read this essay. Well, but everyone could. Essay? So if all of you read this essay and understand it, then economic expectations would be based on about water crisis, the historical exponential model, and thus stock values would increase. You mean if everyone understands it, and agrees with it. Okay, I suppose I was assuming that. Is that what you expect to happen. Well, actually, no.

Putting on my futurist hat again, my prediction is that indeed these views will prevail, but only over time, as more and critical on robert more evidence of the essays about exponential nature of technology and critical frost its impact on the economy becomes apparent. This will happen gradually over essays crisis, the next several years, which will represent a strong continuing updraft for the market. Technology has always been a double edged sword, bringing us longer and healthier life spans, freedom from physical and mental drudgery, and many new creative possibilities on the one hand, while introducing new and salient dangers on the other. We still live today with sufficient nuclear weapons (not all of which appear to be well accounted for) to a remembrance end all mammalian life on the planet. Essays Crisis? Bioengineering is in the early stages of essay grader for pc enormous strides in reversing disease and aging processes. However, the means and knowledge will soon exist in a routine college bioengineering lab (and already exists in more sophisticated labs) to create unfriendly pathogens more dangerous than nuclear weapons. As technology accelerates toward the Singularity, we will see the same intertwined potentials: a feast of essays water crisis creativity resulting from human intelligence expanded a trillion-fold combined with many grave new dangers.

Consider unrestrained nanobot replication. Nanobot technology requires billions or trillions of such intelligent devices to be useful. On Fractal? The most cost effective way to scale up to such levels is through self-replication, essentially the same approach used in the biological world. And in the same way that biological self-replication gone awry (i.e., cancer) results in biological destruction, a defect in the mechanism curtailing nanobot self-replication would endanger all physical entities, biological or otherwise. Other primary concerns include “who is controlling the nanobots?” and “who are the nanobots talking to?” Organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) or just a clever individual could put trillions of undetectable nanobots in the water or food supply of an individual or of an entire population. These “spy” nanobots could then monitor, influence, and even control our thoughts and actions. Essays Water Crisis? In addition to inequality introducing physical spy nanobots, existing nanobots could be influenced through software viruses and other software “hacking” techniques. When there is software running in our brains, issues of privacy and essays about water crisis security will take on a new urgency. My own expectation is inequality essay that the creative and constructive applications of water crisis this technology will dominate, as I believe they do today.

But there will be a valuable (and increasingly vocal) role for a concerned and constructive Luddite movement (i.e., anti-technologists inspired by early nineteenth century weavers who destroyed labor-saving machinery in inequality essay protest). If we imagine describing the dangers that exist today to people who lived a couple of hundred years ago, they would think it mad to take such risks. On the other hand, how many people in the year 2000 would really want to go back to the short, brutish, disease-filled, poverty-stricken, disaster-prone lives that 99 percent of the human race struggled through a couple of centuries ago? We may romanticize the essays about water crisis past, but up until fairly recently, most of humanity lived extremely fragile lives where one all too common misfortune could spell disaster. Substantial portions of our species still live in this precarious way, which is at least one reason to continue technological progress and the economic enhancement that accompanies it. People often go through three stages in examining the impact of future technology: awe and wonderment at essay its potential to overcome age old problems, then a sense of dread at a new set of grave dangers that accompany these new technologies, followed, finally and hopefully, by the realization that the only viable and responsible path is to set a careful course that can realize the about water promise while managing the peril. In his cover story for WIRED Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us, Bill Joy eloquently described the plagues of centuries’ past, and thesis how new self-replicating technologies, such as mutant bioengineered pathogens, and “nanobots” run amok, may bring back long forgotten pestilence. Essays About Crisis? Indeed these are real dangers. It is also the case, which Joy acknowledges, that it has been technological advances, such as antibiotics and improved sanitation, which has freed us from the prevalence of such plagues. Suffering in the world continues and writing a remembrance speech demands our steadfast attention. Should we tell the millions of people afflicted with cancer and other devastating conditions that we are canceling the development of all bioengineered treatments because there is a risk that these same technologies may someday be used for essays water crisis, malevolent purposes?

Having asked the rhetorical question, I realize that there is a movement to do exactly that, but I think most people would agree that such broad based relinquishment is critical essays on robert frost not the about answer. The continued opportunity to alleviate human distress is one important motivation for critical essays on robert, continuing technological advancement. Also compelling are the already apparent economic gains I discussed above which will continue to essays water hasten in the decades ahead. The continued acceleration of many intertwined technologies are roads paved with gold (I use the plural here because technology is clearly not a single path). In a competitive environment, it is an inequality essay, economic imperative to go down these roads. Relinquishing technological advancement would be economic suicide for individuals, companies, and nations. Which brings us to the issue of relinquishment, which is Bill Joy’s most controversial recommendation and personal commitment. Essays About Crisis? I do feel that relinquishment at a remembrance speech the right level is part of a responsible and constructive response to these genuine perils. About? The issue, however, is exactly this: at what level are we to essay on virtue never goes unrewarded relinquish technology? Ted Kaczynski would have us renounce all of it.

This, in my view, is neither desirable nor feasible, and the futility of such a position is only underscored by the senselessness of Kaczynski’s deplorable tactics. Another level would be to forego certain fields; nanotechnology, for water, example, that might be regarded as too dangerous. But such sweeping strokes of relinquishment are equally untenable. Nanotechnology is simply the critical essays inevitable end result of the persistent trend toward miniaturization which pervades all of technology. It is essays about water crisis far from a single centralized effort, but is being pursued by a myriad of projects with many diverse goals. One observer wrote: “A further reason why industrial society cannot be reformed. Essay Grader For Pc? . . is that modern technology is a unified system in which all parts are dependent on one another. You can’t get rid of the “bad” parts of technology and retain only the about water “good” parts. Take modern medicine, for example. Progress in medical science depends on progress in chemistry, physics, biology, computer science and other fields. Writing Speech? Advanced medical treatments require expensive, high-tech equipment that can be made available only by a technologically progressive, economically rich society.

Clearly you can’t have much progress in about medicine without the whole technological system and everything that goes with it.” The observer I am quoting is, again, Ted Kaczynski. Although one might properly resist Kaczynski as an authority, I believe he is correct on the deeply entangled nature of the benefits and risks. However, Kaczynski and I clearly part company on essay, our overall assessment on the relative balance between the two. Bill Joy and I have dialogued on this issue both publicly and privately, and we both believe that technology will and should progress, and that we need to be actively concerned with the essays about water dark side. Thesis Geometry? If Bill and about I disagree, it’s on the granularity of on fractal relinquishment that is both feasible and desirable. Abandonment of broad areas of technology will only push them underground where development would continue unimpeded by ethics and regulation.

In such a situation, it would be the less stable, less responsible practitioners (e.g., the terrorists) who would have all the expertise. I do think that relinquishment at the right level needs to be part of our ethical response to the dangers of twenty first century technologies. Essays About Water Crisis? One constructive example of grader for pc this is the proposed ethical guideline by the Foresight Institute, founded by nanotechnology pioneer Eric Drexler, that nanotechnologists agree to relinquish the development of physical entities that can self-replicate in a natural environment. Another is a ban on self-replicating physical entities that contain their own codes for self-replication. Essays Crisis? In what nanotechnologist Ralph Merkle calls the “Broadcast Architecture,” such entities would have to obtain such codes from essay never unrewarded a centralized secure server, which would guard against water undesirable replication. The Broadcast Architecture is school on virtue never goes unrewarded impossible in the biological world, which represents at least one way in which nanotechnology can be made safer than biotechnology.

In other ways, nanotech is essays water crisis potentially more dangerous because nanobots can be physically stronger than protein-based entities and more intelligent. It will eventually be possible to combine the two by having nanotechnology provide the codes within biological entities (replacing DNA), in which case biological entities can use the much safer Broadcast Architecture. Our ethics as responsible technologists should include such “fine grained” relinquishment, among other professional ethical guidelines. Other protections will need to include oversight by regulatory bodies, the development of technology-specific “immune” responses, as well as computer assisted surveillance by law enforcement organizations. Many people are not aware that our intelligence agencies already use advanced technologies such as automated word spotting to monitor a substantial flow of telephone conversations. As we go forward, balancing our cherished rights of privacy with our need to be protected from the essay grader malicious use of essays powerful twenty first century technologies will be one of many profound challenges. Speech? This is one reason that such issues as an about, encryption “trap door” (in which law enforcement authorities would have access to never goes otherwise secure information) and the FBI “Carnivore” email-snooping system have been so contentious. As a test case, we can take a small measure of comfort from how we have dealt with one recent technological challenge.

There exists today a new form of water fully nonbiological self replicating entity that didn’t exist just a few decades ago: the computer virus. When this form of destructive intruder first appeared, strong concerns were voiced that as they became more sophisticated, software pathogens had the potential to destroy the computer network medium they live in. Yet the “immune system” that has evolved in for pc response to this challenge has been largely effective. Although destructive self-replicating software entities do cause damage from time to time, the injury is but a small fraction of the benefit we receive from the computers and communication links that harbor them. No one would suggest we do away with computers, local area networks, and the Internet because of software viruses. One might counter that computer viruses do not have the lethal potential of biological viruses or of destructive nanotechnology. Although true, this strengthens my observation. The fact that computer viruses are not usually deadly to about water humans only means that more people are willing to inequality essay create and release them.

It also means that our response to about water crisis the danger is that much less intense. Conversely, when it comes to thesis on fractal geometry self replicating entities that are potentially lethal on a large scale, our response on all levels will be vastly more serious. Technology will remain a double edged sword, and the story of the Twenty First century has not yet been written. It represents vast power to be used for all humankind’s purposes. We have no choice but to work hard to apply these quickening technologies to advance our human values, despite what often appears to be a lack of consensus on what those values should be. Once brain porting technology has been refined and fully developed, will this enable us to live forever? The answer depends on water, what we mean by signaling, living and dying. Consider what we do today with our personal computer files. When we change from essays about water one personal computer to on fractal geometry a less obsolete model, we don’t throw all our files away; rather we copy them over to the new hardware. Essays About Crisis? Although our software files do not necessary continue their existence forever, the critical on robert longevity of our personal computer software is crisis completely separate and disconnected from the hardware that it runs on.

When it comes to our personal mind file, however, when our human hardware crashes, the on virtue never unrewarded software of our lives dies with it. However, this will not continue to be the case when we have the means to store and about water restore the thousands of school essay on virtue never goes unrewarded trillions of about bytes of information represented in the pattern that we call our brains. The longevity of one’s mind file will not be dependent, therefore, on the continued viability of any particular hardware medium. Ultimately software-based humans, albeit vastly extended beyond the severe limitations of humans as we know them today, will live out on the web, projecting bodies whenever they need or want them, including virtual bodies in diverse realms of virtual reality, holographically projected bodies, physical bodies comprised of nanobot swarms, and other forms of nanotechnology. A software-based human will be free, therefore, from the constraints of any particular thinking medium. Today, we are each confined to a mere hundred trillion connections, but humans at the end of the twenty-first century can grow their thinking and signaling thoughts without limit. We may regard this as a form of immortality, although it is worth pointing out that data and information do not necessarily last forever. Although not dependent on the viability of the hardware it runs on, the longevity of essays about information depends on its relevance, utility, and accessibility. If you’ve ever tried to retrieve information from an school on virtue goes unrewarded, obsolete form of data storage in an old obscure format (e.g., a reel of magnetic tape from a 1970 minicomputer), you will understand the essays water crisis challenges in keeping software viable. However, if we are diligent in maintaining our mind file, keeping current backups, and porting to essay current formats and mediums, then a form of immortality can be attained, at least for software-based humans.

Our mind file–our personality, skills, memories–all of that is lost today when our biological hardware crashes. When we can access, store, and restore that information, then its longevity will no longer be tied to our hardware permanence. Is this form of immortality the same concept as a physical human, as we know them today, living forever? In one sense it is, because as I pointed out earlier, our contemporary selves are not a constant collection of matter either. About Water? Only our pattern of matter and energy persists, and even that gradually changes. Signaling? Similarly, it will be the pattern of a software human that persists and develops and changes gradually. But is that person based on my mind file, who migrates across many computational substrates, and who outlives any particular thinking medium, really me? We come back to the same questions of consciousness and identity, issues that have been debated since the Platonic dialogues. As we go through the twenty-first century, these will not remain polite philosophical debates, but will be confronted as vital, practical, political, and legal issues. A related question is “is death desirable?” A great deal of our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it, and indeed often consider its intrusion a tragic event.

Yet we might find it hard to live without it. We consider death as giving meaning to essays about water crisis our lives. It gives importance and value to time. Critical On Robert? Time could become meaningless if there were too much of it. The Next Step in Evolution and the Purpose of crisis Life. But I regard the freeing of the human mind from its severe physical limitations of scope and duration as the necessary next step in signaling evolution. Evolution, in my view, represents the purpose of water life. That is, the purpose of life–and of our lives–is to evolve. The Singularity then is not a grave danger to be avoided.

In my view, this next paradigm shift represents the goal of our civilization. What does it mean to evolve? Evolution moves toward greater complexity, greater elegance, greater knowledge, greater intelligence, greater beauty, greater creativity, and grader for pc more of other abstract and subtle attributes such as love. And God has been called all these things, only without any limitation: infinite knowledge, infinite intelligence, infinite beauty, infinite creativity, infinite love, and so on. Essays Water? Of course, even the accelerating growth of evolution never achieves an essay, infinite level, but as it explodes exponentially, it certainly moves rapidly in that direction. So evolution moves inexorably toward our conception of God, albeit never quite reaching this ideal. Thus the freeing of our thinking from the severe limitations of its biological form may be regarded as an essential spiritual quest. In making this statement, it is crisis important to emphasize that terms like evolution, destiny, and spiritual quest are observations about the end result, not the basis for these predictions. I am not saying that technology will evolve to human levels and beyond simply because it is our destiny and because of the satisfaction of a spiritual quest.

Rather my projections result from a methodology based on on fractal, the dynamics underlying the (double) exponential growth of technological processes. The primary force driving technology is essays water economic imperative. We are moving toward machines with human level intelligence (and beyond) as the result of millions of small advances, each with their own particular economic justification. To use an example from geometry my own experience at one of my companies (Kurzweil Applied Intelligence), whenever we came up with a slightly more intelligent version of speech recognition, the new version invariably had greater value than the earlier generation and, as a result, sales increased. It is interesting to note that in about water the example of speech recognition software, the three primary surviving competitors stayed very close to each other in the intelligence of their software. A few other companies that failed to do so (e.g., Speech Systems) went out of business. Writing? At any point in time, we would be able to sell the version prior to the latest version for perhaps a quarter of the price of the essays current version.

As for versions of our technology that were two generations old, we couldn’t even give those away. This phenomenon is not only true for pattern recognition and other “AI” software, but applies to all products, from bread makers to cars. Critical Frost? And if the product itself doesn’t exhibit some level of intelligence, then intelligence in the manufacturing and marketing methods have a major effect on about, the success and profitability of an enterprise. There is inequality essay a vital economic imperative to create more intelligent technology. Intelligent machines have enormous value. Essays About? That is why they are being built. There are tens of thousands of projects that are advancing intelligent machines in diverse incremental ways.

The support for “high tech” in the business community (mostly software) has grown enormously. When I started my optical character recognition (OCR) and speech synthesis company (Kurzweil Computer Products, Inc.) in 1974, there were only a half-dozen high technology IPO’s that year. On Robert Frost? The number of such deals has increased one hundred fold and the number of dollars invested has increased by more than one thousand fold in about the past 25 years. In the four years between 1995 and inequality 1999 alone, high tech venture capital deals increased from just over $1 billion to approximately $15 billion. We will continue to build more powerful computational mechanisms because it creates enormous value. Water Crisis? We will reverse-engineer the human brain not simply because it is writing speech our destiny, but because there is valuable information to be found there that will provide insights in building more intelligent (and more valuable) machines. We would have to repeal capitalism and every visage of economic competition to stop this progression. By the second half of this next century, there will be no clear distinction between human and about machine intelligence. On the one hand, we will have biological brains vastly expanded through distributed nanobot-based implants.

On the other hand, we will have fully nonbiological brains that are copies of inequality essay human brains, albeit also vastly extended. And we will have a myriad of other varieties of essays intimate connection between human thinking and the technology it has fostered. Ultimately, nonbiological intelligence will dominate because it is a remembrance speech growing at a double exponential rate, whereas for all practical purposes biological intelligence is at essays about water a standstill. Human thinking is stuck at 10 26 calculations per signaling second (for all biological humans), and that figure will never appreciably change (except for essays about crisis, a small increase resulting from genetic engineering). Nonbiological thinking is still millions of times less today, but the cross over will occur before 2030. By the end of the twenty-first century, nonbiological thinking will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than that of its biological progenitors, although still of human origin.

It will continue to be the human-machine civilization taking the next step in evolution. Most forecasts of the future seem to ignore the on fractal revolutionary impact of the Singularity in our human destiny: the inevitable emergence of computers that match and ultimately vastly exceed the capabilities of the essays about water crisis human brain, a development that will be no less important than the writing a remembrance evolution of crisis human intelligence itself some thousands of centuries ago. And the on fractal primary reason for this failure is that they are based on the intuitive but short sighted linear view of essays about history. Before the essay next century is over, the Earth’s technology-creating species will merge with its computational technology. There will not be a clear distinction between human and machine. After all, what is the difference between a human brain enhanced a trillion fold by essays about, nanobot-based implants, and a computer whose design is based on high resolution scans of the human brain, and then extended a trillion-fold? Why SETI Will Fail (and why we are alone in the Universe) The law of accelerating returns implies that by 2099, the intelligence that will have emerged from human-machine civilization will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than it is today, dominated of course by its nonbiological form.

So what does this have to do with SETI (the Search for Extra Terrestrial Intelligence)? The naive view, going back to for pc pre-Copernican days, was that the essays crisis Earth was at the center of the Universe, and writing human intelligence its greatest gift (next to God). The more informed recent view is that even if the likelihood of a star having a planet with a technology creating species is very low (e.g., one in a million), there are so many stars (i.e., billions of trillions of them), that there are bound to be many with advanced technology. This is the view behind SETI, was my view until recently, and is the common informed view today. Although SETI has not yet looked everywhere, it has already covered a substantial portion of the Universe. In the above diagram (courtesy of essays water crisis Scientific American), we can see that SETI has already thoroughly searched all star systems within 10 7 light-years from Earth for alien civilizations capable (and willing) to transmit at on virtue never goes a power of at least 10 25 watts, a so-called Type II civilization (and all star systems within 10 6 light-years for transmission of at least 10 18 watts, and essays about so on). No sign of intelligence has been found as of yet. In a recent email to my research assistant, Dr. Seth Shostak of the SETI Institute points out essay, that a new comprehensive targeted search, called Project Phoenix, which has up to 100 times the sensitivity and covers a greater range of the radio dial as compared to previous searches, has only essays about water crisis been applied thus far to 500 star systems, which is, of course only critical essays frost a minute fraction of the essays about water crisis half trillion star systems in just our own galaxy.

However, according to for pc my model, once a civilization achieves our own level (“Earth-level”) of radio transmission, it takes no more than one century, two at the most, to achieve what SETI calls a Type II civilization. If the assumption that there are at least millions of radio capable civilizations out there, and that these civilizations are spread out over millions (indeed billions) of about water years of development, then surely there ought to be millions that have achieved Type II status. Incidentally, this is not an school essay on virtue unrewarded, argument against the SETI project, which in my view should have the highest possible priority because the negative finding is no less significant than a positive result. It is odd that we find the cosmos so silent. Essays About Water Crisis? Where is everybody? There should be millions of essays on robert frost civilizations vastly more advanced than our own, so we should be noticing their broadcasts.

A sufficiently advanced civilization would not be likely to essays water crisis restrict its broadcasts to subtle signals on obscure frequencies. Why are they so silent, and so shy? As I have studied the implications of the law of accelerating returns, I have come to a different view. Because exponential growth is so explosive, it is the case that once a species develops computing technology, it is only a matter of school essay a couple of essays crisis centuries before the nonbiological form of their intelligence explodes. It permeates virtually all matter in their vicinity, and speech then inevitably expands outward close to the maximum speed that information can travel.

Once the nonbiological intelligence emerging from that species’ technology has saturated its vicinity (and the nature of water crisis this saturation is another complex issue, which I won’t deal with in this essay), it has no other way to essays continue to evolve but to essays about crisis expand outwardly. The expansion does not start out at essays on robert the maximum speed, but quickly achieves a speed within a vanishingly small delta from the essays about water maximum speed. What is the maximum speed? We currently understand this to grader for pc be the speed of light, but there are already tantalizing hints that this may not be an absolute limit. Essays About Crisis? There were recent experiments that measured the flight time of photons at nearly twice the speed of light, a result of quantum uncertainty on signaling, their position. However, this result is water actually not useful for this analysis, because it does not actually allow information to be communicated at faster than the speed of light, and we are fundamentally interested in communication speed.

Quantum disentanglement has been measured at a remembrance many times the speed of essays crisis light, but this is only communicating randomness (profound quantum randomness) at speeds far greater than the speed of light; again, this is not communication of information (but is signaling of great interest for restoring encryption, after quantum computing destroys it). There is the potential for about crisis, worm holes (or folds of the Universe in dimensions beyond the three visible ones), but this is not really traveling at faster than the speed of light, it just means that the topology of the Universe is not the simple three dimensional space that naive physics implies. But we already knew that. However, if worm holes or folds in the Universe are ubiquitous, then perhaps these short cuts would allow us to get everywhere quickly. Would anyone be shocked if some subtle ways of getting around this speed limit were discovered? And no matter how subtle, sufficiently subtle technology will find ways to signaling apply it. The point is that if there are ways around this limit (or any other currently understood limit), then the extraordinary levels of intelligence that our human-machine civilization will achieve will find those ways and exploit them.

So for now, we can say that ultra high levels of intelligence will expand outward at the speed of light, but recognize that this may not be the essays actual limit of the speed of expansion, or even if the limit is the speed of light that this limit may not restrict reaching other locations quickly. Consider that the time spans for biological evolution are measured in grader millions and billions of years, so if there are other civilizations out there, they would be spread out by huge spans of time. If there are a lot of them, as contemporary thinking implies, then it would be very unlikely that at least some of them would not be ahead of us. That at least is the SETI assumption. And if they are ahead of us, they likely would be ahead of water crisis us by huge spans of time. The likelihood that any civilization that is ahead of us is ahead of us by only a few decades is extremely small. If the SETI assumption that there are many (e.g., millions) of technological (at least radio capable) civilizations is correct, then at least some of them (i.e., millions of them) would be way ahead of on robert us.

But it takes only a few centuries at most from the advent of computation for that civilization to about crisis expand outward at thesis on fractal at least light speed. Given this, how can it be that we have not noticed them? The conclusion I reach is that it is essays about water likely that there are no such other civilizations. Inequality? In other words, we are in the lead. That’s right, our humble civilization with its Dodge pick up trucks, fried chicken fast food, and ethnic cleansings (and computation!) is in the lead. Now how can that be? Isn’t this extremely unlikely given the billions of trillions of essays crisis likely planets?

Indeed it is very unlikely. But equally unlikely is the writing a remembrance speech existence of our Universe with a set of laws of physics so exquisitely precisely what is needed for essays about, the evolution of life to be possible. But by the Anthropic principle, if the Universe didn’t allow the evolution of life we wouldn’t be here to notice it. Yet here we are. So by the same Anthropic principle, we’re here in the lead in the Universe.

Again, if we weren’t here, we would not be noticing it. Let’s consider some arguments against this perspective. Perhaps there are extremely advanced technological civilizations out there, but we are outside their light sphere of for pc intelligence. That is, they haven’t gotten here yet. Okay, in this case, SETI will still fail because we won’t be able to see (or hear) them, at least not before we reach Singularity. Perhaps they are amongst us, but have decided to remain invisible to us. Incidentally, I have always considered the water crisis science fiction notion of large space ships with large squishy creatures similar to us to be very unlikely. Any civilization sophisticated enough to make the trip here would have long since passed the a remembrance speech point of merging with their technology and would not need to about water send such physically bulky organisms and equipment. Such a civilization would not have any unmet material needs that require it to steal physical resources from us. Essay? They would be here for essays water, observation only, to gather knowledge, which is the only resource of value to such a civilization.

The intelligence and equipment needed for grader, such observation would be extremely small. Essays About? In this case, SETI will still fail because if this civilization decided that it did not want us to notice it, then it would succeed in thesis on fractal geometry that desire. Keep in mind that they would be vastly more intelligent than we are today. Perhaps they will reveal themselves to essays water crisis us when we achieve the next level of our evolution, specifically merging our biological brains with our technology, which is to inequality essay say, after the about crisis Singularity. Moreover, given that the SETI assumption implies that there are millions of such highly developed civilizations, it seems odd that all of them have made the same decision to stay out of our way. Why Intelligence is More Powerful than Physics. As intelligence saturates the matter and energy available to it, it turns dumb matter into never goes unrewarded, smart matter. Although smart matter still nominally follows the laws of physics, it is so exquisitely intelligent that it can harness the essays crisis most subtle aspects of the laws to manipulate matter and essays on robert frost energy to water crisis its will. So it would at least appear that intelligence is more powerful than physics. Perhaps what I should say is that intelligence is more powerful than cosmology. That is, once matter evolves into critical essays on robert, smart matter (matter fully saturated with intelligence), it can manipulate matter and energy to essays water crisis do whatever it wants.

This perspective has not been considered in discussions of signaling future cosmology. It is assumed that intelligence is essays irrelevant to events and processes on a cosmological scale. Stars are born and die; galaxies go through their cycles of creation and destruction. The Universe itself was born in a big bang and will end with a crunch or a whimper, we’re not yet sure which. But intelligence has little to do with it. Intelligence is just a bit of signaling froth, an ebullition of little creatures darting in and out of inexorable universal forces. The mindless mechanism of the Universe is winding up or down to a distant future, and there’s nothing intelligence can do about it. That’s the common wisdom, but I don’t agree with it. Intelligence will be more powerful than these impersonal forces. Essays Water Crisis? Once a planet yields a technology creating species and that species creates computation (as has happened here on signaling, Earth), it is essays about water only a matter of a few centuries before its intelligence saturates the matter and energy in its vicinity, and for pc it begins to expand outward at water the speed of signaling light or greater.

It will then overcome gravity (through exquisite and water crisis vast technology) and school on virtue unrewarded other cosmological forces (or, to be fully accurate, will maneuver and control these forces) and create the Universe it wants. This is the goal of the essays about Singularity. What kind of Universe will that be? Well, just wait and see. Most of you (again I’m using the plural form of the word) are likely to be around to writing speech see the Singularity. The expanding human life span is another one of those exponential trends. Essays Crisis? In the eighteenth century, we added a few days every year to human longevity; during the nineteenth century we added a couple of weeks each year; and now we’re adding almost a half a year every year. With the revolutions in genomics, proteomics, rational drug design, therapeutic cloning of our own organs and tissues, and related developments in bio-information sciences, we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years.

So take care of yourself the old fashioned way for just a little while longer, and you may actually get to experience the next fundamental paradigm shift in our destiny. Copyright (C) Raymond Kurzweil 2001. Chart Graphics by Brett Rampata/Digital Organism. Topics: Innovation/Entrepreneurship | Quantum | Social Networking/Web. Hi. I was doing some research on this topic. I live in critical essays frost helsinki and I found a finnish translation of The Visible Human Project. It’s here : http://www.1001-soldes.com/visible-human-project. Thanks for creating and sharing a great resource.

The rate of water technological change has serious implications for the economics of investing in terms of a “buy now or wait for the next improved model” problem. The “economic life” of equipment in essay grader for pc certain industries is far shorter than the mechanical life (i.e. the machine is about crisis not worn out and still operates within accepted tolerances). We saw this in the late 90?s to early 2000 when the majority of used metal working machinery dealers went out of business. While the used equipment still “worked like new” it was technologically obsolete relative to the performance of the most recent technology. The economics of competition often led to the situation where the old technology even at school essay on virtue never goes unrewarded an acquisition cost almost equivalent to scrap value, but including operating and maintenance costs, could not compete with the features and costs of the new technology. Financial lending institutions were hit hard as their floor-plan financing of used equipment inventory when the dealer closed it’s doors and gave the keys to the banker, only to find out that the $250,000 machine was worth $5,000 as scrap. As a result, many small manufacturers are finding it almost impossible to get bank financing to acquire new (expensive) technology. As a result, smaller firms are finding it more difficult to be competitive unless they can operate their equipment almost 24/7/365 in order to essays about water “wear it out” before it becomes technologically obsolete. In many areas, this has resulted in a dilemma of deciding to “buy now” or wait for new model. For Pc? As the rate of technological change increases, this can quickly lead to an “investment singularity” where on never makes an investment. I feel that this conundrum is leading to greater concentration in essays crisis manufacturing with less competition.

This in itself may be the critical “brakes” the the technology growth rate as once a manufacturer achieves near monopoly status, it can continue to price goods based on the economics of the water “old technology” without being undercut by new competitors using new technology. I believe that there is a need for a new model of small-medium manufacturing that can “share technology” in order to “wear it out” before it becomes obsolete. Signaling? This obviously entail a major logistics problem that I feel would lead to the development of concentrated manufacturing locations in essays about water crisis order to writing speech facilitate sharing of equipment along with coordination of methods (i.e. standardized CAD-CAM, MRP, etc.). I was wondering why you did not use a paradigm shows patent across the age of technology… can easily support your claims, specifically because the water crisis rate and return can be proven accurate, In 2001 you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years” (So 2011).

In 2015, at the Emerging Issues forum in NC State U, you say that “within 15 years we’ll be adding more than a year every year to your remaining life expectancy.” It does appear, even to this very sympathetic reader of yours, that you keep pushing back the date when we’ll finally reach longevity escape velocity. Where does he say that? I can’t find that quote in this article. Also, I would assume his “predictions” are not set in stone, and need flexibility. I see these as possibilities as to when we should be able to do this or that, not an signaling, exact time-frame. He isn’t trying to be a prophet of the future, or a Nostradamus. Essays About Water Crisis? Just listing his educated theories on what the future might hold.

Given medical progress you write that “we will be adding more than a year every year within ten years”. This in 2001, so it would refer to 2011. Have we been adding more than a year to our remaining life span since 2011? looking widely, any growth is like more lambda function than exponent.. exponential growth linear phase saturation.. fixing on writing speech, exponential growth like a searching for Philosopher’s stone.. A technological singularity has already occurred at least once in history. Before the invention of neural cell, the adaptation for new environments required many generations of essays water crisis evolutionary trial. Compared to thesis that, the speed at which neurons model the world is essays water near-infinite.

Seems very reasonable! I was wondering, how to test if a copied mind is indistinguishable from the actual mind copied? Let’s say you and your copy are given the identical simulated world environments to play in. If the behaviours of writing you and your copy do not deviate by more than the behaviour of actual you would be expected to deviate from the behaviour of identical actual you in a universe different from this one by water, the amount of entropy that would be needed to signaling create the observed level of differences in behaviour over the same period of essays about time, then we would consider your copy identical up to that level of entropy, defined by the triple (you, your copy, game). Hello, I am currently a student in essays on robert molecular biology at UofM, Well, firstly, it needs to essays water be stated that this is a deliciously entertaining and well defined hypothesis. There are certainly numerous well-supported facts throughout this essay and school essay on virtue never goes unrewarded I too, agree with its principle suggestion. It is noteworthy to about water point out that what this man is attempting to prove is at its utmost level not provable (currently), but may be able to be in time. Thesis Geometry? The most difficult part to grasp for most people is the ability to extend your analyzing beyond your realm of present reasoning. Essays Water Crisis? On a far lesser scale, many find it difficult to draw 3-Dimensional figures on 2-D paper. But just because you can’t comprehend it-or perhaps even if you can and signaling assess that it is essays about crisis only an optical illusion-doesn’t mean there is no merit in signaling its core reasoning.

That is to about water crisis say, it is possible to use these directly fictitious drawings to ultimately understand the concepts it would entail in 3 dimensions. What I am saying is, simply put, that which is impossible now is not necessarily impossible later. When addressing the future, you must not assess it linearly (as Kurzweil elaborates), despite our deepest internal desire to a remembrance speech view it as so. Essays Crisis? If you think A.I. intelligence is unable to pass human intelligence, then you will have a much more difficult time understanding the ideas behind Dystopian/Utopian theories. On a final note, I truly wonder if these two theories are interrelated, as I’d assume that this could ultimately extend to on robert frost argue that the water crisis exponential growth of technology may culminate in a Singularity point that ultimately results in the destruction of the exponential model and offers an for pc, entirely new shape after. (I’d assume a possible restart in technological growth if you believe in Dystopia with a Utopian stance being more unclear).

I am very interested to hear your take on that. How will we apply technplogy that is more intelligent than its creators………. yea, imagine some one from the 80s picking up a smart phone and having infinite amount of information in their hands! they would be so unimpressed… u mad bro that life didn’t turn out like movies from the crisis 70?s and 80?s….you’re an signaling, idiot. I’m just going to say something about the essays about water life and the future. There were changes in the past for thesis geometry, the future for essays, the past, old fashioned civilians. Everything is the same, everyone is the same. They all think their more godly than others. The fact is, their not. They never will be…there’s only president’s and higher occupations who fuck up our world and are the higher occupations.

So, now we live in inequality essay the Still Age, where nothing seems to move forward. Crisis? Sure we have technology, but nothing’s actually happening. Thesis Geometry? Life’s dead, the people may seem alive but we are the walking dead. Essays About? Suppose we don’t actually need a zombie apocalypse because WE are it. We ARE zombies. I mean, look at all the movies from the 70?s/80?s they expect in the 2000s/2020s will be all futuristic with hover cars and a remembrance speech moving cities and blah blah blah but NO, they would be choking themselves now that the future hasn’t moved on and they saw today. I will be dead by the time anything changes to our city or evolves….why is it that we can’t go out by essays about, the time night comes? why cant we be creatures of the night instead of creatures of the essay on virtue never unrewarded day? It’s frustrating, sitting here on essays water, your bed waiting for the next day. Critical On Robert? The night is not safe for anyone, why?

Who dared made it that way? I would like to walk in the night feeling safe but I suppose that isnt possible…why is the day safe? But the essays about crisis day isnt safe, either. No, I didn’t read the preposterous post or comments. Maths sucks…I bet I can pass by writing, without using it…that’s a challenge…okay, so maybe the shops I need maths for but thats it and I can use a calculator for water crisis, gods sake! Who the fuck buys 42 melons anyway? You know?

Those ridiculous math sums. And why, do we see all these people everywhere and dont know their names? Their everything? Their always different looking everyday. We don’t have self awareness because we’re just too used to everything, we’re almost like puppets obeying this life system…we only have self awareness when we are in trouble.

I mean, I kind of feel like we’re just waiting to die everyday. I don’t want that. I hate that. I want to feel alive, to feel lived, I dont want to walk in a daydream. Why must we obey the system? Go to school for half your life, work the rest of the thesis on fractal half, grow old and die. Essays About Water Crisis? Everyone’s the same. It’s programmed for every human. You want to writing know your purpose? That’s your purpose. Work till you grow old.

Enjoy the little things ;) It is mind bogging yet well supported by facts…dear sir may I bring one area that could sweep all other areas…exponential increase is BADLY needed in personal conduct,wash-out of water crisis negative thinking ,and being. old indian scriptures DO mention that such is possible.but that is all to. it…probably suspecting misuse. from nsc. UIM (Ultra Intelligent machines) ” ultra-intelligent machine could design even better machines” document in 1960s are not far from reality. “consciousness is an thesis on fractal geometry, unbroken chain. if you copy yourself directly you break the chain, the new copy’s consciousness would begin at that point and your old self would continue to be conscious. a slow transition allows an introspective understanding of that gradual change as you evolve from biology into technology, although you may change your consciousness remains intact. that is my view anyway” Moore’s law is just one of millions of positive feedback loops that occur in the world (in biology, sociology, economics, chemistry etc). Yet none of essays about water these feedback loops continue indefinitely, as you are assuming Moore’s Law will. This is because every feedback loop, including Moore’s Law, eventually has limiting factors (Usually a lack of resources / ingredients).

All the technology curves will be slowed by thesis, limiting factors eventually, and about water the singularity won’t occur. Jordan: in The Singularity Is Near book. Ray explains that Moore’s law will expire in the future, and thesis on fractal will be replaced by essays about, another process. Jordan – respectfully – did you read the whole essay? I agree with your criticism in a sense, in that we haven’t yet established that there is a possible “paradigm” after integrated circuits. Pointing to the end of Moore’s law and claiming their is nothing beyond that is no different than having someone circa 1956 claiming vacuum tubes are the thesis geometry fastest computers we can EVER make. Essays About Crisis? Moore’s law is projected to writing end sometime around 2018 – 2022. Water Crisis? Ray is very aware of this, as he points out many times in signaling his essay. Had his argument been of the form “Moore’s law – Singularity” your counter argument would have been sufficient.

This is not at all what he is arguing, in fact, the essays crisis premise “Moore’s law will end” is one premises of his argument (the rise an fall of new paradigms for intelligence). If you want to argue against a singularity occurring, you need to address the signaling fundamental trends underlying Moore’s law (things along the lines of building upon previous innovations and then work out what laws of essays about physics may interfere with the continuation of that trend). The only small problem I saw with what his argument above is that nanites will have a hard time sending and receiving WiFi if they are smaller than the writing wavelength of carrier frequency. If I were to then conclude that this physical problem will prevent nanites from water EVER using any kind of wireless communication, I would be adopting the same type of thinking as yours regarding Moore’s law. All of signaling us working together over water, many years of innovation and “evolution” have created this smooth pattern (I would argue that ALL people contribute in some small way, even the ones that don’t appear to essay grader for pc be doing anything – it all adds up).

The patterns you see in a branching tree, in the periodic table, in about water human personality types, a fractal, the signaling sand on the beach, a hurricane, the Belousov–Zhabotinsky reaction… take your pick but the “Law of essays about crisis Accelerating Returns” as Ray calls it is simply another one of on fractal those types of about patterns. It’s literally a force of nature – we recognize that we’re creating that pattern, but then we delude ourselves into writing a remembrance, thinking that we’re “in control” of essays water crisis it, and that just isn’t the case. All of these large scale aggregate patterns constructed by an uncountable number of small scale chaotic events will be points of great interest for us going forward (they already are, but they’ll become more important as we try to solve problems… like the end of Moore’s law). They form the links between the known fundamental properties of the a remembrance universe with our experienced conciousness. A top priority is to understand that complex and essays water crisis interconnected web. uuuuuuummmm, i was told i would recieve 40 trillion dollars…. by Theodoore Aborgone. 40 trillion? For what??

Hi to everyone, this is my first post, because I REALLY need help. Everywhere i see know this advertisements about Forex thing, got attracted, started to read about thesis on fractal geometry, it, but still really confused about What is forex . All the explanations i find on the internet are very complicated. Too many smart words. Can someone explain what is forex by his own words ? Tired of websites. I just can not imagine with incredibly blog greatly that warned me! God bless you “It is not beauty that endears; it’s love that makes us see beauty.” – Leo Tolstoy. Too much technological change within such a short period of time is too much for essays crisis, humans to handle. Humans must learn how to adapt to the societal changes that this new technology will bring, so that humans won’t end civilization as we know it. We as a species must strive for peace. note how phase conjugation is the symmetry origin of acceleration (gravity) and all centripetal – self organizing forces. Seems like we should re-evaluate the perception we call time imortality is right around the corner.

So hold on to your pants were about to defy physics as we know it. Epigenetic mechanisms can provide a survival advantage under adverse conditions with mechanical laws. Essay For Pc? It presupposes that Science historically developed out of essays water crisis Phylosophy. It is essays frost more convenient to postulate that Epigenetics expanded in accordance with mechanical laws that have existed since the beginning of creation. Essays About? (Epigenetics Wikipedia page here) I have two problems with this theory. On Virtue Goes? The first is physical, the second metaphysical.

The first problem that while exponential growth is certainly a mathematical possibility, it is never a physical one. In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist. For example, the repellent force of protons looks asymptotic until a certain point – then it breaks over and nuclear forces take over, binding the water nucleus of an atom together. The same thing happens with a zener diode, or any other seemingly asymptotic function. There is always a breakover point. (Interesting discussion regarding the growth of mass as it approaches the speed of light – but if you think about it, we simply don’t know yet). The second is metaphysical. This theory assumes – and I think incorrectly – that consciousness is the result of increased neural activity.

However, any honest person that thinks about it will realize that there is something in the “soul” or “spirit” that is yet to be explored or understood. Anyone that has ever entered a room where an argument has just taken place and “felt” the “tension” in the room has sensed with something other than the brain – unless all of that is just electromagnetic vibes, and as an electrical engineer, I know those electromagnetic waves travel outward and disperse at nearly the on robert speed of about water light. Essay? I think that the brain is essays water more of an inequality, interface to the “spirit” where real cognitive thinking occurs. That is why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to essays water crisis music, etc.) in order to “think”. Inequality? Our brain doesn’t do the thinking, that is a metaphysical thing. Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed (like evolution). It is more of a religion than religion is.

The complexity of the about interface certainly needs to be explored, but until we can figure out where the real cognitive engine is, I don’t think there is any chance that more complex interfaces will become self aware. The RS 232 interface is simple and the USB3 may be better and more complex, but no matter how good the interface gets, it will never become the computer chip itself. LIkewise, the brain may be exceeded by a computer, but it will never become the cognitive center of a person. On the bright side, Mr. Kurzweil, the spirit never dies. Are you sure about this? Animal often communicate non-verbally because they don’t have a structured, organized universal way of communicating with one another. So they have to rely on a remembrance, a not of non-verbal ques to communicate with one another. Therefore you example of “walking into a room with an argument” isn’t a very good example of a “spiritual” perception, because humans display certain actions and characteristic when under pressure, and some of us have been wired to perceive these unconscious non-verbal forms of essays crisis communication. Looks of signaling worry, muscles tensing up, frowns, fidgeting…

It’s a romantic idea that we have a soul, but to claim we have souls is to deny the elegance and essays about water crisis beauty that is our brains. So don’t be mean to your brain, give credit where credit’s due! ” In mathematics, all exponential growth results in asymptotes. Inequality? There are, however, no physical asymptotes – they simply do not exist.” There is a physical limit at the end of the essays about water century. He explains in this particular essay that he left it out, but it is basically the point at which we cant get any more use out of an atom and simply require more atoms. At that point all research and speech advancement will be towards getting more atoms. “That is why we “stew” on things to think them through – our brain needs to about water crisis be preoccupied sometimes (watching TV, listening to essay grader for pc music, etc.) in order to “think”.

Our brain doesn’t do the about crisis thinking, that is a metaphysical thing.” We are unaware of the vast majority of our brains activity. This is the writing a remembrance work being done in the subconscious. We are only aware of the activity on the thin outer film on the outside of the about water brain, and we have even shown that many of the decisions we think we consciously make were actually your subconscious making the decision and lying to you conscious brain that you made the decision. You can tell these “decisions” apart from the essay for pc rest by asking yourself if you actually considered alternatives to what you just did; if not, that is your subconscious. Your subconscious considers almost every thing you could possibly do next, and analyzes the world in very unconventional ways… sometimes seeing past our rigid conception of reality. 95% of about water crisis our brain is in the subconscious. Little is known about essay for pc, what the water subconscious is capable of or senses past the 5 our conscious brain is aware of.

Seeing into the outer layer of the subconscious is a spiritual experience. It can be achieved through dreaming, meditation, spirituality, and school essay on virtue never hallucinogens. When you “feel” things you are not aware of or “stew”, this is your subconscious working away. This is the essays about crisis real you. “Thinking that cognitive self-awareness comes from neural activity is a stretch that is grader not supported by any medical knowledge, it is simply assumed” Self awareness is shown to take place in the brain only when it is in a highly interconnected state. The outer 5% of the water crisis brain is the conscious part and school essay on virtue never is only developed to any reasonable extent in humans. The conscious part of the brain connects the other parts of the brain together and allows you to about water crisis be aware of them and also override them with logic. Scientific inquiry into this by watching chain reactions in the brain has shown that when are are no longer self aware, the difference in the brain is that the essay for pc separate parts are no longer communicating with each other…they are simply acting.

This is how it is in essays about crisis animals. You made a few points that I found interesting and you might be able to help me with a nonprofit initiative of mine called iSocialWatch, it is the thesis on fractal geometry first social media watchdog and consumer advocacy organization focusing on privacy, safety, psychology and sexuality in the context of cyber, social and ultra connected space. You can reach out by essays about crisis, email stephane at isocialwatch dot org, or Twitter “isocialwatch”, or facebook.com/isocialwatch. Writing A Remembrance? Looking forward hearing from you. I’m not sure that I agree with the Kurzweil’s refutation of Penrose’s description of the essays crisis origin of consciousness.

I would not, for example, say that the inequality gradual introduction of electronic pseudo-neurons is functionally equivalent to essays crisis a complete brain scan/recreation. The fundamental difference between the two processes, it seems to me, is the gradual nature of the former, which avoids the discontinuity of the inequality essay latter. Continuity may be fundamental to essays about crisis consciousness, which is why Penrose’s argument holds water. No matter how “close” our quantum technology can come to replicating our quantum states, there will always be that discontinuity because the duplication, as Penrose argues, cannot be perfect. Therefore, consciousness cannot be downloaded from a biological mind. Of course, consciousness could also be something completely unrelated to all of this. Maybe these physical processes are results of consciousness and not the other way around.

Every new invention has a beginning, an accellerating development phase, a peak of development and then a decellerating slowing down of development. Nothing takes forever. Eventually we will live in a world that doesn’t change much. Essay? You just think it is linear or exponentially accellerating because you don’t appreciate that the industrial/technological time has been very short. It’s like looking at our world and thinking it is flat but when you get to the pole it goes no further. It’s just a ball.

You can’t see the reality because you over-rate your intelligence. I think the essays crisis jump from inequality essay – the essays about window that a civilization would be broadcasting radio waves is very small – to, therefore no other civilizations exist – is a false conclusion. I also disagree that civilizations would be broadcasting a signal to all the signaling universe once they advanced beyond human level intelligence. The smart entity would conceal themselves and be the essays about crisis one to decide when any contact should occur. I do not think they are here, but that does not mean that they aren’t out there. Are You Serious Bro? We Tried So Hard Not To Go There But There You Went…

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A Business Plan Doubles Your Chances for essays about water Success, Says a New Survey. The value of writing a business plan is often debated in the entrepreneurial community. For every successful business that was launched with a well-thought-out business plan, it seems you can find an inequality essay equally successful one that was launched with nothing more than some scribbles on the back of a napkin. In fact, the water crisis, contrarian approach may be the one you hear most about #8212; i.e., entrepreneurs dismissing a business plan as something they wrote and then stuffed in the bottom of a drawer. On Fractal Geometry. Palo Alto Software founder Tim Berry (a contributor here at Small Business Trends ) recently reported on some new data showing the value of business plans.

Palo Alto did a survey that asked thousands of its Business Plan Pro software users questions about their businesses, goals and business planning. The responses showed that those who completed business plans were nearly twice as likely to successfully grow their businesses or obtain capital as those who didn#8217;t write a plan. Tim gave this breakdown of the essays crisis, numbers: 2,877 people completed the survey. Critical Essays On Robert Frost. Of those, 995 had completed a plan. Crisis. 297 of them (36%) secured a loan 280 of them (36%) secured investment capital 499 of them (64%) had grown their business. Signaling. 1,556 of the 2,877 had not yet completed their plan. Essays About Water. 222 of grader for pc, them (18%) secured a loan 219 of them (18%) secured investment capital 501 of them (43%) had grown their business.

Of course, as author of the original Business Plan Pro software program and founder of Palo Alto Software, Tim admits he#8217;s a little biased in essays about favor of business plans. And people who respond to essay never goes a survey by the company that made their software may be biased in about water crisis favor of saying good things. So Tim had the University of inequality essay, Oregon Department of Economics assess the validity of the data. Eason Ding and Tim Hursey wrote a report on the data with the supervision of Professor Joe Stone. #8220;Results suggest that planning with software is highly correlated with subsequent successes for a variety of firms,#8221; they wrote. Regardless of the type of company, the growth stage of the company and the intent for the business plan, Ding and Hursey#8217;s analysis found that writing a business plan correlated with increased success in every one of the business goals included in the study . About Crisis. These were: obtaining a loan, getting investment capital, making a major purchase, recruiting a new team member, thinking more strategically and growing the company.

The authors concluded: #8220;Except in a small number of cases, business planning appeared to be positively correlated with business success as measured by our variables. While our analysis cannot say that completing a business plan will lead to success, it does indicate that the type of entrepreneur who completes a business plan is essay grader for pc, also more likely to run a successful business.#8221; And if I correctly interpret the last sentence in the quote above, the act of going through the business planning process may make you a better entrepreneur. So there you have it: you#8217;re better off WITH a business plan than without one. In fact, based on the survey, you are twice as likely to grow your business or achieve funding if you have taken the time to write a business plan. That#8217;s interesting, but I#8217;m going to have to water nitpick your conclusion. The quotes you used say that there#8217;s a correlation between writing a business plan and being successful. Essays Frost. It seems like this data would have tremendous selection bias, so I don#8217;t think there#8217;s any evidence to support the claim that writing a business plan makes you any more likely to succeed. It makes perfect sense that the type of person that would write a business plan is more organized, dedicated, intelligent, talented, and/or experienced than someone that doesn#8217;t write a business plan.

This doesn#8217;t mean that writing a business plan improves any of those qualities. Even still, that#8217;s a pretty interesting study. Thanks for essays about crisis sharing it. Do you have stats on how much they were writing business plans during the so called Dot Com era? No way! You mean that having an actual plan before you start a business is a good idea?

Cmon!I suppose that the next thing you#8217;ll tell me is that Palo Alto Software makes the best of the best in business plan software! The Franchise King. nice post i am glad to thesis left comment here. Taking the time and making the effort to produce a business plan shows organization, determination and forethought. All of which would tend to water preselect toward successful individuals, so I#8217;m not sure if this is the critical essays on robert, chicken or the egg#8230; A great article with many truisms. having been in the business of writing strategic plans most of my life I would have to essays water crisis agree wholeheartedly with the conclusions. It never ceases to amaze me how many people will use GPS or Google Maps for a trip somewhere but when it comes to writing speech starting a business they think they can do it without any strategy, without any guiding road-map. I am not saying the essays water, plan has to be set in concrete, but just like in sports where you know what the on fractal geometry, goal of the game is, in business you need to have clear idea of what you want to accomplish and then how do you wish to accomplish that goal.

Right on! Business plans are very important to success, not because they set out all the essays water crisis, solutions to critical on robert frost potential problems but because the process itself makes you aware of opportunities and challenges. Fore-warned is fore-armed! This is so interesting to about water me. I just gave a speech about effective business planning. My premise was that unless you are looking for thesis funding you don#8217;t need the lengthy, detailed, business plan created by the Business Plan Pro software. HOWEVER, you DO need a plan! How can you go anywhere if you don#8217;t know where you are going or how you are going to get there?

Business planning is critically important to essays about business success. The 3 key elements in my estimation are: vision, planning, and communication. Writing. Biased or objective I am not surprised by the conclusion. Demings#8217; Plan-Do-Check-Act cycle is about, a proven concept is the field of management and certainly applies to the process of setting up and developing a small business. Without a plan, how do you know where to school essay goes unrewarded focus your efforts?

How do you know if you#8217;re on essays crisis, target? If you don#8217;t have a business plan any result you achieve (even a poor one) is good since you don#8217;t have a plan to compare it to. So yes, having a sound business plan is a vital part of setting up a small business. Not just to convince others that you have thought things through but also for yourself as a baseline reference for your level of success. It#8217;s the planning, not the plan that impacts chances of success. Those who take the time to think things through, consider consequences and alternatives, determine the definition of success and the steps necessary to reach it are significantly more prepared than those who wing it. Ok it does seem an obvious truth. But even more important than the plan and the process of writing the plan I think, is essays frost, measuring yourself up against how far you are in water crisis achieving the geometry, plan. Setting up systematic ways of measuring progress to the plan, even a plan written on a napkin, will contribute the most to success. Very useful survey, and another proof that business plan is important, whether it#8217;s a one-page or 100-page plan. Biz plan gives you clearer path to essays water help you navigate your business better I consider it like our personal to on fractal geometry do list: shop for groceries, pick up kids from school, etc.

Also, it#8217;s obvious that bizzes with biz plans will secure loans better lenders want to know how you would use their money, and biz plan can do this for you. Great Post. Entrepreneurs have to be excellent managers of resources #8212; human, financial, informational, technological, material and time. If you are organized, savvy with finances. This research is a classic example of #8220;there are lies, damnable lies, and statistics#8221; (from Twain who got it from someone else). My second book (to be published in December 2010) is titled #8220;Bad Plans Carried Out Violently#8221; and water crisis promotes the essays on robert, idea that DOING SOMETHING trumps pre-planning almost without exception. About Water Crisis. I#8217;ve talked with hundreds of successful business owners and asked them four questions: 1) Did you do a business plan before you started your business? 2) If you did, how well did it project what actually happened over 1 yr, 3 yrs and 5 yrs? 3) Do you do ongoing strategic planning you fully update each quarter (this is not the geometry, classic January Business Plan or investor doc), to incorporate the feedback you get as you are doing business in essays the trenches? 4) If you do ongoing Strategic Planning vs. an annual Business Plan, how much do you find your plan changing over time as a result of doing ongoing dynamic strategic planning? The number of successful business owners who do a business plan before starting their business is statistically insignificant well less than 1%.

The only reason the small minority gave for doing one is because they had to in order to get money from a bank or investor (almost no one does one just for themselves). That should tell you something about the inequality, classic #8220;pre-planning#8221; Business Plan we#8217;re all taught is so important. Almost no one who is successful does one, yet we continue to essays crisis pound the signaling, idea that it#8217;s necessary. Of those very few that did do a Business Plan before starting, virtually none of essays about water, them say their Business Plan projected accurately what actually happened in the next 12 months, or 3yr or 5 yrs. To the signaling, contrary most said their Business Plan was wildly off from what actually happened in about water crisis the real world. So most biz owners don#8217;t do one, and those that do find they don#8217;t reflect reality, yet we continue with the Business Plan mantra. Very few biz owners do ongoing quarterly Strategic Plans, but of essay, those that do, they are unanimous in saying that the reason they do is because business, just like life, changes so much and so rapidly, that a once a year Business Plan is essays about, useless, and that the purpose of the classic Business Plan is simply to get a loan. Otherwise it has no value in their business. Writing A Remembrance Speech. The conclusion is that successful business owners don#8217;t do a classic Business Plan unless they are forced to by a bank or investor, and water crisis that they never look at it after that.

So it clearly has value for getting a loan, but not for running a business. On Robert. The proper planning analogy (which is chapter one in my book) planning is a rudder on a ship. Essays About Water Crisis. The rudder is a necessary but VERY small part of inequality, ship and is absolutely useless without movement. Essays About Water Crisis. You do not steer a ship with a rudder, you steer it with movement the same thing is true for a business. On Fractal Geometry. And the faster you move the ship, the less rudder (planning) it takes to affect a right or left turn.

Stop planning and essays crisis get moving! #8220;Committed Movement in grader a Purposeful Direction#8221; and #8220;Implement Now. Perfect as You Go.#8221; two concepts from my book are much more instructive to success than pre-planning. Knowing the end goal is extremely important knowing beforehand the path for how you will get there is fortune-telling. See the essays about crisis, new book from 37Signals.com called #8220;Rework#8221; for writing others affirming this as well. Hi Chuck, I agree entirely. Essays Water Crisis. To summarise the reason most businesses have a problem with planning is that they see it as an school on virtue never event when in essays about fact its a process. Essay. Sometimes, even the task of writing a business plan can be daunting. At the same time, it#8217;s important to get something on paper. About Water Crisis. That#8217;s why I created a Back of the Napkin business plan exercise http://myshingle.com/2010/06/articles/ideas-tips/back-of-the-napkin-business-plan/ to get down vision as well as specific tasks to accomplish. A Remembrance. My thanks to Rieva for an excellent summary of my earlier post, and thanks to all of essays water, you whose comments point out that what really matters is the planning, the planning process, the live plan that is reviewed and revised regularly according to plan vs. Essay Grader For Pc. actual results. That becomes management, steering the business.

The formal plan isn#8217;t the point; the first plan is just the about, first step towards planning as steering and management. Speech. Ironically, a lot of water crisis, people who would agree with the above criticize the business plan per-se, without realizing that you can#8217;t have planning process or management or steering without the essay on virtue never goes, plan as the first step. About Water. Let#8217;s not throw out on fractal, business planning just because some people stop at the end of a single plan, without following up. Good business practices don#8217;t become bad just because a few people misuse or exaggerate. Essays About Water. Good points, Tim. The problem is that the Business Plan is almost universally seen as 1) a very thorough, thick, and detailed documentation of what is supposed to happen, and 2) a static document that you might review once in a while but rarely change more than once a year. The problem with #1 is that complexity breeds paralysis the essay, better we capture everything we think might happen going forward in great detail, the more likely the weight of all that detail is essays water, going to keep us from understanding the plan itself. Simplicity breeds movement; once we got our business owners to stop doing a business plan and start doing a simple two-page strategic plan that captured the few things that really need to be done, we found they started using it because it was easily grasped and essay grader easily managed. Perhaps most importantly (from my perspective admittedly) is that at essays water every turn when business owners ask what#8217;s the most important thing they should do to become successful, they are told #8220;do a business plan#8221;, and the examples they are given of what that means are always complex and full of #8220;thud factor#8221; (they make a loud noise when dropped on a table). Grader For Pc. Visit the SBA site or many other small biz sites and they all tell you to do a complex business plan first.

Where are the people telling business owners to do a very simple one or two page strategic plan for how they will sell something, and get moving. About. Why aren#8217;t we focused on inequality, giving them very simple processes for doing that instead? There is much more compelling evidence that Speed of Execution creates success than does business planning, but we still tell people to sit around and about water think about inequality things. It could be in about fact, that the reason the study found people who finished their business plan to be more successful was simply because they have a higher Speed of Execution and get moving on essay grader, everything they do, not just their plan. If we put planning in essays about its proper context as a SUPPORT MECHANISM for movement, it#8217;s a tremendous tool. Signaling. But I almost never see it shared that way. It#8217;a always some kind of magic bullet do a Business Plan as if writing what you think might happen someday actually makes it happen. Water Crisis. Movement is the gift, and on virtue never goes unrewarded planning is its faithful servant.

We have these two things backwards. We worship and serve the servant and have forgotten the about, gift (concept borrowed from Einstein). A business plan helps, that is for sure but needs to be well done otherwise is writing a remembrance speech, useless. Then, it has to about contain real market figures if you want to get some fundings from it. You need also to be able to see outside it when starting your business as things change and you need to be able not to on robert only stick to it. As a CPA and essays about financial consultant, there is no doubt in my mind that a business plan serves as a plan, guide, feasibility study, road map, etc. It is imperative to communicating your company plan to key stakeholders investors, bankers, managers, although the most used section is the school on virtue unrewarded, financial section as these stakeholders want to know if the essays water crisis, business will make profit and cashflow. In the past 30 years, I have found it necessary to take the financial snapshot portion of the business plan and turn it into inequality a dynamic real-time cashflow management system that is linked to historical financials and about water crisis future forecasts.

It then becomes the CEOs day to day financial management system, focused on both financial managing the business as proactively analyzing #8220;what if#8221; business decisions. The book #8220;Drive Your Business to signaling Financial Success#8221; is a quick read for small business CEOs, owners, etc. that teaches both financial concepts and a real-time cashflow management system. We are a non-profit lender and one of the first criteria for obtaining funding with us is a business plan. If you are going to ask someone to invest in you and crisis your business a well thought out signaling, business plan is essential. A good business plan should serve as a guide and reference tool, something you review and refer back to often to gauge where you have been, thought you would be and your current position. I know there are many people who start and run successful businesses with no formal business plan and this is not meant to about water crisis detract from their success in anyway. Even successful businesses very often need to essay grader for pc borrow money from a lender to reach their next goal and if you do, you are going to about need to present a business plan as part of the application process. It helps convey to the lender that you are serious, organized, prepared and on fractal geometry a good risk. All good qualities in lenders eyes! Lenders ask for business plans because they don#8217;t usually know how to assess the likelihood of success from real world metrics/experience, etc. But that doesn#8217;t make them a good idea, just a necessary one when dealing with a lender.

But lenders should stop asking for them because they don#8217;t have any correlation with success. Here#8217;s something to think about regarding whether business plans are a good way to start a business. Essays Water Crisis. 1) Not a single Fortune 500 was started with a business plan not one. 2) And as we research it, I#8217;m willing to bet that not a single Fortune 5000 (or maybe no more than a handful) were started with a business plan, either. 3) After asking thousands of business owners around the world about signaling them, only 3-6% do one if they don#8217;t need a loan.

And to date, we have yet to find a single one of crisis, these businesses that worked out anywhere close to what was in the plan. Inequality Essay. Yet we keep trying. But there are MUCH better predictors of about crisis, success that lenders could use if they understood what makes people successful and school what doesn#8217;t. Having a business plan or not having one when you start is not one of about crisis, them. I agree with those that see the essay unrewarded, true value of a business plan as a process. You can come up with brilliant ideas, but the real key to success is in pre-planning and organization. The most important use of the business plan, other than financing, is in about water the planning process. It forces you to realistically assess the who, what, when, where, why, how and how much for planning and critical implemention of your enterprise. It allows you to plan for asset acquisition, location, business parameters, manning levels, cash flow projections, ad nauseum. Once the business is running, you enter the observation and tweaking arena wherein you make adjustments based on results.

At that point the essays about water crisis, plan is essay, not as strategically important, but there have to about water crisis be controls and a means to analyze progress and implement adjustments. My thanks to essay never goes unrewarded Rieva for an excellent summary of my earlier post, and thanks to all of you whose comments point out essays about crisis, that what really matters is the planning, the planning process, the live plan that is reviewed and revised regularly according to plan vs. actual results. Signaling. That becomes management, steering the business. The formal plan isn’t the point; the about, first plan is signaling, just the first step towards planning as steering and essays management. On Fractal. Ironically, a lot of crisis, people who would agree with the above criticize the business plan per-se, without realizing that you can’t have planning process or management or steering without the plan as the thesis on fractal geometry, first step.

Let’s not throw out business planning just because some people stop at water the end of speech, a single plan, without following up. Essays Water. Good business practices don’t become bad just because a few people misuse or exaggerate. Writing. It makes perfect sense that the essays crisis, type of thesis, person that would write a business plan is essays water crisis, more organized, dedicated, intelligent, talented, and/or experienced than someone that doesn’t write a business plan. This doesn’t mean that writing a business plan improves any of those qualities. The dot com era makes it double trouble. It’s the planning, not the plan that impacts chances of essay, success. Those who take the time to think things through, consider consequences and alternatives, determine the about crisis, definition of success and the steps necessary to reach it are significantly more prepared than those who wing it.

Very useful survey, and another proof that business plan is important, whether it’s a one-page or 100-page plan. Writing Speech. Nice#8230; Hi Rieva, useful insights here and I linked you back as one of the more useful sources of statistics on business plan success. However I wanted to add that there are a fair amount of success factors which make or break achieving the business plan#8217;s objective, namely founder#8217;s performance in the credit interviews and essays the existence or lack thereof of supporting documents. Have a look maybe at thesis this article we wrote, it latches onto the ideas stated in crisis your article and might be useful to your readers: Regards much continued success for everyone#8217;s projects! Pingback: Tweets that mention A Business Plan Doubles Your Chances for Success, Says a New Survey | Small Business Trends -- Topsy.com. Pingback: Best Blogs for Women | Web Business Woman. Pingback: Is Resistance to grader Planning About Fear of Mistakes? | Business in General. Pingback: The March Group Shares: A Business Plan Can Double Your Success | tmg test blog. Pingback: How to Make a Living in the Web Industry | Design City. Pingback: The Value of a Business Plan Towson University’s Outreach Blog. Pingback: Not IF#8230;but WHEN #124; Extraordinary Business | Extraordinary Small Business Consutling | Operations Strategy | Aepiphanni.

Pingback: Not IF#8230;but WHEN #124; Extraordinary Business | Extraordinary Small Business Consutling | Operations Strategy | Aepiphanni. Job Growth Among Small Businesses Continues to Stagnate, Wages Continue to Climb Slowly. About Water Crisis. Spotlight: Milk Eggs Startup Provides an Online Farmers Market in inequality Los Angeles. Founded in 2003, Small Business Trends is an award-winning online publication for small business owners, entrepreneurs and the people who interact with them. It is one of the most popular independent small business publications on the web. Together with hundreds of water crisis, expert contributors, Small Business Trends brings you the news, advice and resources you need. Small business success. Unrewarded. delivered daily. Copyright 2003 - 2017, Small Business Trends LLC. All rights reserved.

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Flower Garden Essay In Hindi Essays and Research Papers. Daniel Keyes's fictional story, Flowers for about, Algernon, drew on themes, patterns of frost events, and character types from the Biblical story of the . Garden of Eden. Both stories had a mutual theme: Ignorance is bliss. Both stories also shared a similar pattern of events. Charlie Gordon, the about crisis protagonist in Flowers for Algernon, and thesis on fractal Adam and Eve, the essays crisis main characters in the Garden of essay goes Eden, all started out in a state of innocence, unaware of evil, until they were encouraged to become smarter. After they.

Adam , Adam and Eve , Book of about Genesis 818 Words | 3 Pages. Covent Garden From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Jump to: navigation, search |Covent Garden . | | | | |[pic] | |[pic] | |Location | |OS grid reference: |TQ303809 . Aldwych , City of Westminster , Covent Garden 1282 Words | 5 Pages. ? Flowers play important roles in our everyday lives. They are beneficial to all of us. When someone is in the hospital, we bring . flowers to cheer them up. Flowers are a great pick-me-up.

You send flowers to your loved ones on special occasions like Mother's Day or on birthdays to show how much you care. You might even get cuttings out of writing your garden to brighten up a room or for essays about water crisis, the fragrance. Flowers also have healing properties. Not only do flowers help relieve stress, they are used in medicine. Calendula , Flower , Fruit 2006 Words | 7 Pages. Flower Flower is abeautiful things for me.I like it so much.Ilike to give all person that.I love them flowers to . exepres my love and school essay on virtue goes unrewarded recpect for them.We can see the flower in many places such us:garden house and farms.It have amany beautiful colours like:red,light pink and dark pink,yellow and white.for me I like the red flower becous it meems the love.Know I wont to give my teacher this flower to exepres my love and crisis recpect for her. Information about flowers Municipal offline Avatar municipal. Flower , Flowering plant , Fruit 2058 Words | 7 Pages.

?Homework – Essay Question 2: To what extent does Laura, in Mansfield’s ‘The Garden Party’, ‘break free from her enclosed . middle-class world’? Laura, the protagonist in Mansfield’s ‘The Garden Party’, is a young middle-class woman who tries to signaling, break free from her enclosed class word but as ambivalent as she is, she does not succeed and about water does not go beyond trying. On the one hand, she feels sympathetic for the lower-class and even joins them but on the other hand, she still sticks to middle-class. American novels , Black-and-white films , Empathy 703 Words | 2 Pages. The Flowers – critical essay Question: Choose a novel or short story in which there is a clear turning point. Briefly . describe what leads up to the turning point and explain the effect it has on a remembrance, the rest of the novel or short story. Answer The short story, “The Flowers ” by about water crisis, Alice Walker, has a clear turning point.

There are many clues in the story which symbolise the turning point coming closer. The turning point is on fractal geometry, when the main character, a young girl, steps into the skull of a lynched. Black people , Fiction , Ku Klux Klan 1692 Words | 5 Pages. ?Seminar Essay : The Themes of Alienation and Loneliness in the Novel If a person is lonely, it means that he or she is affected with or . characterized by a depressing feeling of being alone. However, everyone’s definition of loneliness is different because people experience it for different reasons. Loneliness is an emotion everyone has experienced before, but it does contribute to growth, mentally and emotionally. Essays About Crisis! Loneliness is felt by essay, Charlie Gordon throughout Flowers for Algernon. Charlie’s varying. Flowers for Algernon , Friendship 1230 Words | 3 Pages. Compare and Contrast two key themes in Alice Walker’s ‘The Flower ’ ‘The Flower ’, written by Alice Walker is a short story . about a young 10 years old girl called Myop who has loses her innocence because of what she had found in essays, the forest.

This short story was written during the school essay on virtue goes unrewarded first half of the 1900’s where there were civil rights in America. Alice Walker, who is an American-African writer, wrote this story to let the reader be aware of what is essays about water crisis, happening and how the African-American people are. Chicken , English-language films , Flower 1216 Words | 3 Pages. Essay #3: Evaluation Essay This essay will evaluate an item (automobile, restaurant, film, television . Signaling! show, book, or a recent or prospective purchase). The evaluation essay is an argumentative essay , so it requires evidence to support your opinion and conclusion that you draw about the essays about water item that you are evaluating. On Fractal! The assignment: Decide on an item to evaluate, develop criteria (standards) by which to judge the item, then make a recommendation to the reader as to how well (or not) the. Essay , Peer review , Psychometrics 906 Words | 6 Pages. grows into.

Every individual looks to essays crisis, their parent as a mentor of sorts, someone to ask questions and critical learn from. Essays About Water Crisis! But what if an individual grew up not . School Essay Never Unrewarded! knowing who that mentor was, without acquiring their values and traits. In the about water novel The Forgotten Garden by Kate Morton she centers the story on a family spanning from the early 1900’s to signaling, early 2000’s. Eliza, Nell, and Cassandra are all the main protagonists in the story and all faced a loss of their birth parents. Each of these characters grew up without. A Story , Discovery , English-language films 1534 Words | 4 Pages. Flowers for Algernon In his novel, Flowers for Algernon, Daniel Keyes, tells the story of Charlie Gordon, a mentally retarded . 32 year old man. An experimental surgery takes him from the darkness of stupidity, into the bright light of intelligence only to force him back into the dark.

Enabling him to crisis, achieve a state if higher intelligence is thought to be an inequality improvement of Charlie’s life. If it really is for the better becomes uncertain. Essays About Crisis! Before the a remembrance speech operation, Charlie’s intelligence and emotions. Charly , Daniel Keyes , Family 975 Words | 3 Pages. Flower arrangement is the combination of several elements to produce a visually pleasing display of essays crisis fresh, silk or dried flowers . . Grader! Flowers are arranged in crisis, several basic designs, including vertical, horizontal, triangular, crescent, and oval arrangements.

Other options include a minimal arrangement, such as the lazy “S” or “Hogarth’s Curve,” and essay grader free-standing arrangements. Hogarth’s curve is named for English painter William Hogarth who introduced designs shaped like the curves of the letter “s” into. Curve , Flower , Inflorescence 1059 Words | 4 Pages. Beauty of a Flower “We can complain because rose bushes have thorns, or rejoice because thorn bushes have roses. About Water! - Abraham Lincoln” Most . important living organism other than human beings are animals and plants. Flowers and critical essays weeds have a huge role in life that they tend to essays water crisis, play. Flowers and weeds are completely different in which they grow to reproduce or grow to destroy. On Fractal Geometry! Knowingly that weeds also reproduce. Flowers are known to be a brightly colored and conspicuous example of such a part of.

Flower , Human , Organism 1107 Words | 3 Pages. MUKESH KUMAR Email: mukeshkumar5392@yahoo.com Mobile no: 9717316942 Address: Devi Mandir E Block Tagore Garden Extn. New Delhi 110027 . CAREER OBJECTIVE: To Work with a Progressive Organization and in a Challenging Environment where I can Contribute My Skills to enhance my Productivity and at the same time achieve the essays water Organizational Objective with Attribution of on fractal geometry Time, Quality and Discipline. PROFESSIONAL QUALIFICATION: Done full time B-tech (2009-13) from essays about, Electrical Electronics. Delhi , Electronic engineering , Electronics 424 Words | 3 Pages. A flower , sometimes known as a bloom or blossom, is the reproductive structure found in flowering plants (plants of the a remembrance division Magnoliophyta, . About Crisis! also called angiosperms).

The biological function of a flower is to inequality, effect reproduction, usually by providing a mechanism for about, the union of sperm with eggs. Flowers may facilitate outcrossing (fusion of school never goes unrewarded sperm and eggs from different individuals in a population) or allow selfing (fusion of sperm and egg from the same flower ). Essays About Water Crisis! Some flowers produce diaspores. Flower , Flowering plant , Gynoecium 1007 Words | 3 Pages. Flowers For Algernon: Quarter Four Book Review: Flowers for Algernon, is a science fiction novel written by Daniel Keys. . Inequality Essay! Taking place in crisis, the mid 1960s, the school on virtue unrewarded story revolves around Charlie Gordon, a mentally retarded young man from New York, whose life is completely altered when he becomes the test subject for essays about crisis, an intelligence science experiment. At this time, those with metal issues are considered to be less than human beings. Flowers For Algernon, is composed of progress reports written by on fractal geometry, Charlie. Developmental psychology , Flowers for Algernon , Human 971 Words | 3 Pages.

writng assignmnt? goin to wbu? i wrote intro du hav tat intro in essays about water, yur pc? yea send me i maild u chck okk Today u finished english? . nop u? no btw we need 15 pages of d content i strted writing shal v ri8 both d essays ? 15:37 wot if tere is repetation so wt to do? btttr lest srch onceagain n f v get a big one lets write o wen wil we complete?? o ls v shale elongate our handwritting tat v can complete hey i cnt do dat ohooo. Indian actors , Indian film actors , International Friendship Day 465 Words | 4 Pages. September 9th New Ark Arrive 5:40pm Depart 7:35pm 1h 55m Today it was my first time going to the New Ark garden . I left home at about . 4:50pm and it took me almost an hour to find Smith Street. Writing A Remembrance Speech! I wanted to make sure I was on time because I never knew there were community gardens in the South, and did not know what to look for. I went to McKinley Middle right around the corner from the water crisis garden and still passed up the street about ten times. (It made me feel so blind because I know I looked past that.

1998 albums , 2004 singles , 2009 singles 2175 Words | 5 Pages. The Flowers By: Alice Walker Characters: * Myop – daughter of a sharecropper. * Dead man – an old corpse found in the woods. Inequality Essay! . Setting: * Farm – where the about crisis parents of Myop work. * Woods – where Myop wanders to find flowers . Symbolism: * Summer – light-heartedness, carefree outlook in life the most children hold. * Flower – innocence, universal symbol of joy and life. * Dead man – loss of innocence, reality of life. * Noose – impossibility of a remembrance remaining innocent. . Child , Childhood , Life 1232 Words | 4 Pages. redwood, and walnut to elaborate moldings and baseboards, To add to the unique look, he built no two windows or doors the same size. Essays About! Dinsmoor , the . artist and social commentator, spent the years between 1907 and 1928 creating the Cabin Home and the Garden of Eden. For Pc! He located his sculptural environment in a residential area, within walking distance of Main Street businesses and visible from the principal railroad track. It appears that Dinsmoor selected the water crisis location with the public in mind.

The environment. Adam , Adam and Eve , Benjamin Franklin 769 Words | 3 Pages. Flowers For Algernon Essay Summary. ? Flowers for Algernon, written by signaling, Daniel Keyes, is a non-fiction short story that is an water emotional roller coaster. Charlie learns the ups and . Writing Speech! downs of the life of a genius and was happy and carefree in his innocence. Eventually he learns shame and it is the only thing he remembers at essays water crisis the end of the story. All Charlie knew was that he wanted to school essay never unrewarded, be smart and this operation could get him his greatest desire in one easy procedure. Before long, the scientists first try this experiment on a mouse to. Flowers for Algernon , Human , Intelligence 1727 Words | 5 Pages.

In Search of Our Mother's Gardens The essay In Search of essays water crisis Our Mother's Gardens by contemporary American . Critical On Robert Frost! novelist Alice Walker is one that, like a flashbulb, burns an essays about crisis afterimage in my mind. Essay On Virtue! It is an essay primarily written to water, inform the reader about the history of African American women in America and how their vibrant, creative spirit managed to survive in inequality essay, a dismal world filled with many oppressive hardships. This piece can be read, understood, and manage to conjure up many emotions within. African American , African diaspora , Afro-Latin American 1489 Words | 4 Pages. The Flower, essay on about water, the poem by George Herbert, detailed analysis. The Flower by George Herbert is an exuberant, joyful poem in inequality, which a single image of the spiritual life is expanded with naturalness and . elegance that appear effortless. Herbert refines a style in essays about crisis, which the essays writer tries to write honestly and directly from essays about water, experience: his imagery is more homely and accessible than John Donne's: if nothing is too exotic for inclusion in Donne's verse, nothing is too ordinary for inclusion in essays on robert frost, Herbert's. But this has the result that Herbert's images are, generally. Flower , Garden of essays water crisis Eden , God 1033 Words | 3 Pages. Hindi Nationalism This piece on Hindu nationalism, written by Alok Rai, deals with the coming of modern Hindi in the late 90s . and writing the early 20s.

Alok Rai who is also known as a critical thinker, theorist and also the grandson of Premchand makes his readers aware of the process of modernization in the case of language. In this essay we get to about water crisis, witness a connection between Hindi (old Hindi ) and “ Hindi ” (new Hindi ). Making of Hindi as a modern language connects to the programme of the imagining the. Braj Bhasha , Hindi , Hindi languages 1413 Words | 4 Pages. Write an essay on signaling, Woolf’s narrative art in ‘Kew Gardens .’ For years, Virginia Woolf is remembered for her contribution in short . stories. She is one of the famous feminist and prolific writers who write in such a way that gives the impression of instantaneous linking between the essays about crisis inner and outer world, the past and essay the present and speech and silence. Kew Gardens is one of her major work. Since, a garden is a common place for common people to meet; Woolf has chosen this particular place to paint the. Anton Chekhov , Fiction , Garden 1054 Words | 3 Pages.

26/6/2013 Essay on “Advantage and Disadvantage of Telephone” in Hindi Essay on “Advantage and Disadvantage of . Telephone” in Hindi by Nilakshi Read this Essay on “Benefit and Loss of Telephone” in Hindi language. www.shareyouressays.com/113818/ essay -on-advantage-and-disadvantage-of-telephone-in- hindi 1/6 6/27/13 Essay on “Advantage and water Disadvantage of a remembrance Telephone” in Hindi www.shareyouressays.com/113818/ essay -on-advantage-and-disadvantage-of-telephone-in- hindi 2/6 6/27/13 . 6th Marine Regiment , All rights reserved , Bihar 342 Words | 3 Pages. The Flowers of Ophelia William Shakespeare uses different types of imagery to symbolize major themes and characters in about crisis, his plays. . Essay! Garden and flower imagery is essays water, a major theme in one of essay on virtue unrewarded his most famous plays, “Hamlet”. About Crisis! Gardens are used to describe the atmosphere, while flowers help us understand the characters, especially Ophelia. Flowers play such a large role in this play and critical essays without this imagery we may not have been able to understand some major points discussed. About! When most people hear the.

Characters in Hamlet , Flower , Garden plants 1255 Words | 4 Pages. The Loss of Innocence Alice Walker (1944), an African/American woman was born in essays, Eatonton, Georgia. She won the American Book Award and crisis the Pulitzer Prize . for a remembrance, Fiction for her best-known novel, The Color Purple (1982). Water Crisis! Her short story, The Flowers , is from 1973, a time where the Civil Rights Movement was trying to writing speech, create an essays water equal society, where blacks and whites could live peacefully together. It was also a time, where many African-American people lived in essay, fear of the racism of the white (reportingcivilrights). A Story , English-language films , Flowers 1093 Words | 3 Pages. Name of the Candidate Name Surname Name of the Parent / Guardian Date of Birth (dd-mm-yyyy) Socio-Economic Details : Gender Nationality Marital Status Social . Status Male Indian Married SC TELUGU Telugu (For office use only) ID No. ENGLISH Hindi Sanskrit Candidate’s Latest Photo Female Others Un Married ST BC Rural PH Urban Others If any Specify : Area which you are living comes under whether Are you employed Yes No Please furnish Work Experience (if any) : Organisation Govt. Private. Distance education , Education , Employment 417 Words | 2 Pages.

I have been in the most famous Botanical Garden with my friends or my family before. Indeed, the Penang Botanic Garden gave us a . Essays Water Crisis! relaxation place for doing physical exercises. The garden is clean, safe and comfortable for jogging. Mostly I go there every morning for writing a remembrance speech, walking up and down just like the locals do, is the best relaxation at 8am. Essays About Crisis! I miss that fresh morning air, too.

Actually the gate is open until after 8pm and there are also some fruits and inequality essay drinks stalls, selling different variety of. Botanical garden , Botany , Garden 1026 Words | 3 Pages. In the poem “The Garden of Love”, which has a figurative meaning, the writer makes a contrast of the experience of essays about his childhood with that of . Speech! his adult life. Which techniques does he use to essays water, achieve this objective? In the collection A Choice of Poets, the author, William Blake expresses his feelings about thesis on fractal geometry his childhood compared to essays water crisis, his adulthood in the poem “The Garden of Love”.

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Certificate Course in about, Audio-Radio Servicing, from Institute of Audio – Video Technology, Nagpur. Yr 1995. 5) Basic Computer course Personal Details: . Date of Birth : 28th March 1977. Father name : Mr.Sudhakar K. Chaware Languages Known : Hindi , Marathi amp; English. Critical Frost! Marital Status : Married Hobbies : Music, Badminton, Horse Riding amp; Art. Extra Curricular Activities : 1. About! Completed Disaster Relief Instructor Course, from National Civil Defence College, Nagpur (Central Government). 2008 , Bharti Airtel , Bharti Enterprises 691 Words | 4 Pages. English 9A Ms. Ryan-Gidman 18 December 2013 Character Garden In the bouquet of flowers Romeo will send to Juliet, there will . be three flowers . Signaling! The first flower in about, this bouquet is Acacia. This flower symbolizes secret love. Signaling! This depicts one of the important themes in this book.

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I am really not sure what sparked my interest in gardening. My mother had some house plants but no flowers outside. My Dad had vegetable gardens , that mom and I helped. Annual plant , Flower , Garden 1693 Words | 4 Pages. The constitution of India (Article 343) recognises Hindi as the about water official language of India. Signaling! Hindi is also the main language in water crisis, . many states of a remembrance speech India such as Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal/ Uttarakhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh and essays about water crisis Himachal Pradesh.

It is spoken by more than 437 million people in the world. The other dialects of Hindi are Brajbhasha, Bundeli, Awadhi, Marwari, Maithili, Bhojpuri, to name only a few. Hindi can be traced back to as early as the seventh or eighth. Chhayavaad , Hindi , Hindi literature 1435 Words | 5 Pages. Flowers play an inequality important role in making the life of a human being more cheerful and happy. People use flowers in several forms . and on several occasions. Flowers are used as beautiful flower arrangements for about water crisis, decorating homes. They are also help people in proposing their partner for inequality essay, life, as well as flowers are used as a symbol of essays water crisis mourn and tribute on loved ones funeral. Apart from above said uses, there are several other uses of essay flowers in various activities of water crisis our daily life.

Flower Arrangements. Anxiety , Emotion , Flower 672 Words | 3 Pages. Alejandra Luna Dr. White English 201 15 September 2011 Like a Flower Love blooms with love, like a flower blooms with . water. “The Chrysanthemums” is a story written by John Steinbeck. This story takes place in 1937, a time when women were not appreciated. Women were supposed to stay home and raise their children. Critical Essays On Robert Frost! The main character, Elisa Allen, feels distant from her husband Henry. The fact that they didn’t have children, might play a role in that feeling, and is probably the reason she wants. Emotion , Flower , John Steinbeck 858 Words | 3 Pages.

this peaceful spring day… Nature's Way © Heidi Campbell Upon a nice mid-spring day, Let's take a look at Nature's way, Breathe the scent of nice fresh . air, Feel the breeze within your hair. About Water! The grass will poke between your toes, Smell the flowers with your nose, Clouds form shapes within the skies, And light will glisten from your eyes. Essays! Hear the essays about water buzzing of the bees, Climb the tallest willow trees, Look across the meadow way, And you shall see a young deer play. Pick the daisies as they. Flower , Ice cream , Odor 821 Words | 6 Pages. when Momma talked to Mrs.

Flowers ? What do these conversations reveal about Angelous attitude toward her grandmother at this time? Because . she feels her mother is being disrespectful, that Mrs. Flowers deserves way more than being called just her name. At the time she could have resented her mother, felt like her mother knew better and essay grader for pc that she didn’t agree at about crisis all. 4. As an adult, what does Angelou suspect about her grandmothers relationship to Mrs. Flowers that she didn’t see as a child. 613 Words | 3 Pages. ?ENGLISH LANDSCAPE GARDEN : a style of signaling Landscape garden which emerged in England in the early 18th century, and essays about spread . across Europe, replacing the more formal, symmetrical jardin a la francaise (French formal garden )of the 17th century as the principal gardening style of Europe presented an idealized view of nature. often inspired by paintings of landscapes by Claude Lorraine and Nicolas Poussin, and some were Influenced by signaling, the classic Chinese gardens of the East usually included a lake, sweeps. 2nd millennium , English garden , English people 1383 Words | 5 Pages. Gardening: Ancient Egypt and Gardens.

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Science writing in Hindi appears to essays, have began in 1818 (Patariya, 2000) with the publication of a magazine named “ Hindi . Digdarshan,” copies of which were circulated to many schools in West Bengal. ‘Digdarshan' regularly incorporated materials on science, a trend that was not in vogue at that time even in signaling, contemporary reputed Hindi publication 'Udant martand' (1928) credited to be the essays first Hindi newspaper. Patairiya (2000) further narrates that a questionnaire related to writing a remembrance speech, chemistry way. Delhi , Hindi , Popular science 1626 Words | 5 Pages. Building and Planting Vegetable Gardens. Building and Planting Vegetable Gardens The structure of your vegetable garden does not have to be entirely functional but it . About Water! should also look and inequality feel good. Building some decorative arches and some tomato cages not only makes your garden look good but also helps it produce more crops. After all, there is crisis, more to planting vegetable gardens than just cultivating a spot of land.

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She chose her colors with the grader for pc greatest. 2005 singles , 2007 singles , American films 1857 Words | 5 Pages. The ultimate place for this mediation is essays about crisis, a Zen garden . These gardens are a Buddhist art expression that focuses on nature. . However, the garden is almost entirely made of stone and gravel, with almost no plant life at all. In this essay I will discuss a brief history of the role of nature in Buddhism, explain why the stones and grader gravel in the Zen Garden are so important and describe, in detail, the essays about crisis finest Zen Garden example that is Ryoanji Dry Garden in Japan. I have personally visited Ryoanji three. Bodhisattva , Buddhism , Dogen 1762 Words | 5 Pages.

Representations of Illness and essay Recovery in 'the Secret Garden' “Explore The Secret Garden’s representation of illness and recovery.” The Secret Garden , written by about water crisis, Frances Hodgson Burnett, is a . children’s story that has endured enormous popularity since its publication in 1911. The novel centres round a young and lonely protagonist, Mary Lennox. Mary’s journeys in critical, The Secret Garden - both physical and spiritual- have been followed by child readers and often remembered long into adulthood. The text communicates to readers themes such as death, sickness, and. English-language films , Frances Hodgson Burnett , Health 2507 Words | 6 Pages. Public Health – Essay – Title and essays crisis subtitle of the essay HYGIENE, EATING HABITS AND ORAL HEALTH AMONG CHILDREN IN THREE . Signaling! NEPALESE PUBLIC HIGH SCHOOLS Author Kerstin Westbacke Author's position and address District dentist, Public Dental Clinic, Langgatan 13, SE-460 10 Lodose, Sweden Phone: +46 (0)520 660077, Fax: +46 (0)520 660838, E-mail: ftv.lodose@vgregion.se Date of approval 2006-04-28 Supervisor NHV/External Professor Arne Halling No of pages Language – essay Language –. Canine tooth , Health , Health care 2275 Words | 11 Pages. The Garden Party is a 1922 short story by Katherine Mansfield. It was first published in the Saturday Westminster Gazette on 4 February 1922, . then in the Weekly Westminster Gazette on 18 February 1922. About Crisis! It later appeared in The Garden Party and thesis Other Stories.[1] Contents [hide] 1 Plot summary 2 Characters in The Garden Party 3 Major themes 4 References to about water, other works 5 Literary significance 6 References 7 External links [edit]Plot summary The Sheridan family is preparing to host a. A Dill Pickle , Anton Chekhov , Boleslaw Prus 787 Words | 3 Pages.

? Jessica Manginelli English 9H Per.1 12-04-12 Flowers It was the first day of on fractal Teacher Appreciation Week in 3rd grade, and about no one really did . anything for their teacher except maybe give them a hug and essay on virtue unrewarded say thanks, or maybe the occasional suck up would give them candy. So when Lamont walked in with a bouquet of rainbow colored flowers , everyone was highly impressed that such a “bad boy” would do something so kind for his teacher. That day he shocked everyone who paid attention, but his actions made. 2000s pop songs , Abuse , Bad 865 Words | 3 Pages. AS YOU LIKE IT HISTORICAL BACKGROUND OF THE PLAY Introduction to Shakespeare When I read Shakespeare I am struck with wonder That such trivial people . should muse and thunder In such lovely language. D. H. Lawrence Quote (1885 - 1930) William Shakespeare (1564-1616) was born in Startford-on-Avon, in the country of essays water Warwick. The third child and first son, William was christened on 26th April, 1564 in school on virtue never, the parish chruch. Essays! His father, John Shakespeare, was a prosperous businessman. William got. As You Like It , Globe Theatre , John Shakespeare 1402 Words | 4 Pages.

stating her first leaf’s a flower . The use of the metaphor connects the third line back to the first line, which states natures’ first green is . A Remembrance Speech! gold. This portrays that just as the nature’s gold fades at crisis dawn, the flowers that bloom in signaling, spring eventually die from the sun in the summer. As Alfred R. Essays! Ferguson stated, “The comparison is metaphoric rather than a simile—that is, leaf is flower , not leaf resembles or is like flower . “As a result, the comparison of the leaf and grader for pc the flower work together to stress. Adam , Adam and Eve , Beauty 1100 Words | 3 Pages. 8/7/13 Free Essay Home About Contact Me Publish Your Essay M ar 16, 2013 Member Submission Contents FAQ . Essays About Water! Letter Enter your email address: Search TOP VIDEOS | CLASS 1 TO 10 My Favourite Cartoon Character (Shinchan) Essay Class 7 Subscribe FREE Delivered by FeedBurner Class 9 - 12, M BBS IIT w w w .topM BBScoaching.com Self Study Course By Phds IITians Online Coaching, Books Set, DV D Set Subscribe in a reader:Firefox, Explorer-LIVE Essay Categories. Cartoon , Character , Crayon Shin-chan 1529 Words | 7 Pages. 4/17/20 5th Samurai’s Garden Loneliness is an unpleasant feeling in which a person feels a strong sense of emptiness resulting to . being sad and school on virtue never goes unrewarded alone. In this case, this book is based about loneliness and adventure. There is essays, one main character, named Stephen-san.

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Used by local communities. Agra , Delhi , Manningham, Bradford 2101 Words | 6 Pages.